信贷资源配置与非周期性产能过剩:微观数据的实证
投稿时间:2018-06-26  修订日期:2018-10-08  点此下载全文
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作者单位邮编
王韧 重庆工商大学财政金融学院 400067
马红旗 中国农业大学经济管理学院 100000
基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目:产能过剩背景下的杠杆率悖论与货币政策选择(17XJC790015);国家社科基金青年项目:“资本—技能互补”视角下驱动力转换的内生路径与政策保障体系研究(16CJY001);国家统计局全国统计科学研究项目:中国工业部门产能过剩监测和预警系统研究(2016LY07);重庆市教育科学“十三五”规划重点课题(2016-GX-043)和重庆市社科规划培育项目(2016PY66)“企业投融资效率对中国货币超发的影响和对策研究”
中文摘要:理清企业产能利用率变化的微观决定机制是探讨产能过剩长效治理机制的重要前提。现有研究虽然强调了中国重工业领域产能过剩的非周期性色彩,但更多基于宏观和行业数据展开,缺乏微观数据实证的支持,也缺乏对不同因素实际影响程度的量化比较。论文采取微观到宏观的研究进路,基于中国工业企业数据库的微观企业数据,选择钢铁这一典型行业样本进行了相应的实证检验。通过基于成本函数法的企业产能利用率测算,以及对影响产能利用率变化各类型因素的实证比较,验证了两个理论假设:(1)制度政策性因素对于我国的产能过剩形成具有更加显著的影响;(2)信贷资源配置是企业产能利用率变化的决定变量,主导了我国重工业领域产能过剩的实际演变。基于不同所有制企业的进一步实证显示金融抑制不仅会引发微观企业投资的预算软约束,还会扭曲微观企业行为。由此对我国钢铁行业乃至于其他重工业领域的产能过剩问题,改革比调控更加重要,而金融资源分配体制的改革则是重中之重。
中文关键词:信贷资源  产能过剩  非周期性
 
Credit Resource Allocation and Non-Cyclical Overcapacity in China: Empirical Analysis Based on Micro-Data
Abstract:Clarifying the microeconomic determining mechanism of the change in capacity utilization rate of enterprises is an important prerequisite for exploring the long-term governance mechanism of overcapacity. Although the existing studies emphasize the non-cyclical characteristics of excess capacity in China"s heavy industry, most of them are based on macro and industry data, lacking the empirical support for micro-data and quantitative comparison of the actual impact of different factors. This paper adopts a micro-to-macro research approach and chooses steel industry as a typical sample to conduct corresponding empirical tests, based on micro data from China Industry Business Performance Database. Through the calculation of the productivity utilization ratio based on the cost function method and the empirical comparison of various factors affecting the utilization rate of capacity, two theoretical hypotheses are verified: (1) Non-cyclical factors have a more significant impact on the formation of overcapacity in China. (2) The allocation of credit resources is a determinant variable of the change in the capacity utilization rate of enterprises, which dominates the actual evolution of excess capacity in the heavy industry in China. Further empirical evidence from different ownership enterprises shows that financial regulation will not only cause soft budget constraint on micro-enterprise investment, but also distort the behavior of the micro enterprise. Therefore, for the issue of overcapacity in China"s steel industry and even in other heavy industries, reform is more important than regulation, and the reform of the financial resource allocation system is of the highest priority.
keywords:Credit resource  Over capacity  Non-cyclical
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