良性通缩还是恶性通缩? ——基于2011年以来通胀水平下行的原因分析
投稿时间:2016-12-27  修订日期:2017-03-14  点此下载全文
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作者单位地址
张启迪 中央财经大学 北京市西城区金融大街4号金益大厦6层
基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(14XSH019)
中文摘要:本文根据通缩对经济的最终影响将通缩分为良性通缩和恶性通缩,并在新凯恩斯主义框架下从理论角度证明了恶性通缩对经济有害,而良性通缩对经济有益。实证研究结果表明,在中长期内,决定中国通胀水平的五个因素分别为产出缺口、全要素生产率、货币因素、贸易因素和国际大宗商品价格。而本轮通胀水平下降的主要原因是国际大宗商品价格下降,其次才是经济下行因素,即本轮通缩是以良性通缩为主、恶性通缩为辅的结构性通缩。因此,对当前通缩应采取适当容忍的态度,不应单纯针对价格水平进行大幅干预。
中文关键词:通货紧缩  产出缺口  全要素生产率  国际大宗商品价格
 
Benign Deflation or Malign Deflation?Based on the Analysis of the Causes of Downward Inflation since 2011
Abstract: In this paper, deflation is divided into benign deflation and malign deflation according to the influence of deflation on economic growth and the impact mechanisms of the two deflations on the economy are studied under the framework of New Keynesianism. It proves that the government should actively intervene in malign deflation and should not interfere in benign deflation. This paper also examines the determinants of China’s inflation and the reason of the downward of inflation in recent years, the results show that in the medium and long term, the five factors that determine the level of inflation in China are the output gap, total factor productivity, monetary factor, trade factor and international commodity prices. The decline of inflation in recent years is mainly due to international commodity prices, followed by economic downturn factors. It means that the current round of downward inflation is dominated by benign deflation and is supplemented by malign deflation. Therefore, the low inflation level should be moderately accepted and should not be significantly interfered just for the price level.
keywords:deflation  output gap  total factor productivity  international commodity price
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