| 基于Cummins模型的中国财险业台风灾害偿付能力评估 |
投稿时间：2016-02-21 修订日期：2016-09-09  点此下载全文 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| 中文摘要:发生频率高、致灾影响大的台风灾害已成为制约沿海地区生产生活正常运行的重要因素，而现行以政府为主导的单一救灾方式易造成巨大的财政负担。商业保险等市场机制的引入，无疑成为海洋灾害风险分散的有益尝试。对此，基于Cummins偿付反应函数模型，以台风频发、灾情较重的浙江、福建、广东、海南四省为研究对象，计算中国财险市场对台风灾害损失的偿付能力。结果显示，中国财险业对台风灾害损失的实际赔付率仅为理论值的16%，保险市场对台风灾害损失有较充裕的偿付空间。最后，从平衡市场力量、培育参与主体、拓展融资渠道等方面，探讨了建立台风灾害保险、提升保险赔付能力的对策建议。 |
| 中文关键词:财险业 台风灾害 偿付能力 Cummins模型 |
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| Assessing the Solvency Capacity of China Insurance Industry about Typhoon Disaster Based on the Cummins Model |
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| Abstract:High frequency of occurrence and big hazard impact of the typhoon disaster have become important factors in the normal development of social and economic life for coastal areas. Relief approach leading by government undoubtedly caused great financial burden as the reason of lacking specific insurance products. It would be a useful means of introducing commercial insurance to risk diversification. Considering that, this paper calculates the property insurance solvency of Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan four provinces, who are typhoon heavier hit areas, based on the established reimbursement reaction function by Cummins. The result shows that the actual payment of our country’s insurance industry is 16% of the theoretical and it also means that there is more ample space on the insurance market to deal with typhoon disaster risks. Finally, this paper explores suggestions to establish the typhoon disaster insurance market and improve insurance solvency capacity from the points: balancing the market forces, fostering participle body, expanding financing channels. |
| keywords:insurance industry typhoon disasters solvency Cummins model |
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