| 银行信贷、房地产价格与经济增长的非线性关系研究 ——基于省际面板平滑转换模型的实证检验 |
投稿时间：2015-09-29 修订日期：2016-05-26  点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文： |
| 摘要点击次数: 515 |
| 全文下载次数: 4 |
|
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金重点项目 |
|
| 中文摘要:本文选用我国2000年到2013年31个省的面板数据，以银行信贷为转换变量，通过构建面板平滑转换模型对我国房地产价格与经济增长的非线性关系进行了考察。研究发现：当信贷增长率低于28.72% 时，房价增长率对经济增长产生比较显著的正向影响；当信贷增长率高于28.72%时，房价增长率对经济增长起到了明显的阻碍作用。因此，为了实现“稳定房价和保持经济平稳增长”的目标，央行应将信贷增速维持在低增长体制的最优区间中。同时，央行还应该改善信贷结构、鼓励和引导金融资源进行合理配置。 |
| 中文关键词:房地产价格 信贷规模 经济增长 面板平滑转换模型 |
| |
| Nonlinear Relationship Among Bank Credit, House Price, Economic growth : A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach |
|
|
| Abstract:Based on China’s 31 province-level panel data from 2000 to 2013, setting bank credit as the transition variable and applying the Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model, this paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between house price and economic growth in China. The results indicate that the effects of house price on economic growth change over the level of bank credit rate. House price is positively correlated with economic growth when bank credit rate below the threshold 28.72%; while bank credit rate above the threshold, house price is negatively correlated with economic growth. Thus, in order to realize the target of stabilizing house price and maintaining stable economic growth, the policy authorities will not only have to keep the increasing speed of bank credit to low growth stage, but also optimizing the credit structure and allocation of financial resources rationally. |
| keywords:House price, Bank credit , Economic growth, Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载pdf阅读器 |
