中国基本养老保险制度财务平衡与可持续性研究
投稿时间:2010-09-04  修订日期:2010-09-04  点此下载全文
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作者单位地址
刘昌平* 武汉大学社会保障研究中心 湖北省武汉市武昌区珞珈山16号武汉大学社会保障研究中心
殷宝明 武汉大学社会保障研究中心 
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
中文摘要:本文采用“到期债务”定义,按照国发[2005]38号文件形成的制度模式,通过构造公式测算了基本养老保险制度的隐性债务、转制成本理论值以及基金缺口的期限结构。结论表明:做实个人账户真正实现了“统账结合、分账管理、实账运行”;社会统筹账户基金缺口规模被有效降低,偿债周期可以接受;社会统筹账户是一个精算盈余的制度安排,缴费率存在下降空间;参保率和缴费基数对基金缺口规模的影响很大,应进一步提高参保率和严格规范缴费基数
中文关键词:基本养老保险  隐性债务  转制成本  基金缺口
 
Research on the Financial Balance and Sustainability of Basic Old-age Social Insurance System in China
Abstract:This article applies the definition “Accrued-to-date liabilities”, accurately calculates the theoretical value of the implicit pension debt, transition cost and the term structure of funding gap by modeling based on State Council Document #38. The conclusions of calculations indicate that the policy of fully funding individual accounts can separate individual accounts from public account effectively and go with solid accounts; the funding gap be lowered observable and the liability term can be accepted; the contribution rate should be cut down because of the actuarial surplus of public account; the coverage and contribution base should be promoted because of their tremendous effect on the financial balance.
keywords:Basic old-age social insurance  Implicit debt  Transition cost  Funding gap
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