低碳政策对经济绿色转型的影响——基于政策强度差异视角

张智; 陈黎明; 宣琳琳; 陈心雨

低碳政策对经济绿色转型的影响——基于政策强度差异视角

引用本文：张智,陈黎明,宣琳琳,陈心雨.低碳政策对经济绿色转型的影响——基于政策强度差异视角[J].财经理论与实践,2026,(3):118-126

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作者	单位
张智,陈黎明,宣琳琳,陈心雨	（湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙 410079）

中文摘要:依据2007—2022年省级面板数据，运用非径向SBM模型构建Malmquist指数测度经济绿色转型指数，采用双向固定效应模型、门槛效应模型与调节效应模型，考量低碳政策强度对经济绿色转型的影响。结果显示：低碳政策强度提升促进经济绿色转型，且在东部、东北地区和产业结构高级化地区效果更突出；门槛效应检验显示，低碳政策对经济绿色转型促进作用在财政支持充足、对外开放水平较高以及劳动力水平处于两级区间时更显著，在财政保障不足或劳动力在中等水平区间时政策效应受到制约；调节效应检验显示，城镇化与政府干预均强化了低碳政策对经济绿色转型的积极作用。鉴于此，应充分考虑财政保障、开放水平与劳动力结构差异，结合城镇化水平和政府调控能力，构建与地区发展相匹配的低碳政策框架，以提升低碳政策对经济绿色转型的促进效能。

中文关键词:低碳政策强度经济绿色转型门槛效应调节效应

Research on the Impact of Low-Carbon Policy Intensity on Economic Green Transformation

Abstract:Based on provincial panel data from 2007 to 2022, this study constructs the Malmquist index using a non-radial SBM model to measure the economic green transformation index. Two-way fixed effects models, threshold effect models, and moderating effect models are employed to examine the impact and mechanism of low-carbon policy intensity on economic green transformation. The results show that increasing low-carbon policy intensity significantly promotes economic green transformation, with stronger effects observed in the eastern and northeastern regions and in areas with more advanced industrial structures. Threshold analysis shows that the positive effect of low-carbon policies is more pronounced under conditions of sufficient fiscal support, higher levels of openness, and at either low or high labor endowment levels, while it is constrained when fiscal support is insufficient or labor endowments are at intermediate levels. Moderating effect analysis shows that urbanization and government intervention strengthen the positive impact of low-carbon policies. Consequently, it is recommended to design low-carbon policy implementation frameworks tailored to regional development conditions, fully accounting for differences in fiscal capacity, openness, and labor structure, while leveraging urbanization and government governance capabilities to maximize the effectiveness of low-carbon policies in promoting economic green transformation.

keywords:low-carbon policy intensity economic green transformation threshold effect moderating effect

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