| 地方财政压力对地方财政政策预期管理的影响——基于地市级面板数据的经验证据 |
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| 引用本文：李辉，匡小平，刘雅楠.地方财政压力对地方财政政策预期管理的影响——基于地市级面板数据的经验证据[J].财经理论与实践,2026,(3):70-79 |
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| 中文摘要:基于2013—2022年地级市面板数据，构建地方财政政策预期管理指数，实证考察地方财政压力对地方财政政策预期管理的影响效应。结果表明：地方财政压力会显著降低地方财政政策预期管理水平，且这一影响主要通过“税费替代”效应传导实现。该影响效应在不同城市与地区间呈现显著的异质性特征，地方经济增长目标压力则会进一步强化这一影响。鉴于此，在持续缓解地方财政压力的过程中，应强化财政政策沟通，提高政策透明度与可信度，规范地方非税收入，弱化地方政府经济增长目标硬性考核约束。 |
| 中文关键词:地方财政压力 地方财政政策预期管理 税费替代 地方经济增长目标 |
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| Research on the Impact of Local Fiscal Pressure on Fiscal Policy Expectation Management |
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| Abstract:Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2013 to 2022, this paper constructs an index for managing expectations of local fiscal policies and empirically examines the impact of local fiscal pressure on this expectation management. The study finds that local fiscal pressure significantly reduces the level of expectation management of local fiscal policies, and this effect is primarily transmitted through the “tax-fee substitution” effect. This impact exhibits significant heterogeneity across different cities and regions, and the pressure from local government economic growth targets further intensifies this effect. In light of this, in the process of continuously alleviating local fiscal pressure, it is necessary to strengthen fiscal policy communication, enhance policy transparency and credibility, regulate local non-tax revenue, and weaken the rigid assessment constraints of local government economic growth targets. |
| keywords:local fiscal pressure expectation management of local fiscal policies tax and fee substitution local economic growth target |
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