| 经济波动的消费者福利效应研究——基于中国实际的内生性劳动RBC分析框架 |
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| 引用本文：庞跃华1， 杨金强2， 杨何灿2.经济波动的消费者福利效应研究——基于中国实际的内生性劳动RBC分析框架[J].财经理论与实践,2026,(2):120-126 |
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| 中文摘要:通过构建一般情形、可分劳动情形与不可分劳动情形的内生性劳动RBC模型，量化分析中国经济波动对消费者福利的影响。研究发现：经济波动的福利效应高度依赖消费者的风险厌恶程度。波动本身未必导致福利损失，在一定条件下反而能增进消费者福利；风险爱好者能通过主动调整行为从波动中获益，其福利的波动幅度也更大；而风险厌恶者则因调整不足而承受净损失。此外，不可分劳动模型比可分劳动模型进一步放大了同等波动带来的福利变化，且风险爱好者的行为特征更契合中国劳动力市场的隐性失业现实。鉴于此，政府部门应重视消费者风险偏好结构的分化特征，采取差异化措施以稳定并提升整体消费意愿与能力。 |
| 中文关键词:经济波动 消费者福利 内生性劳动 经济周期理论 |
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| Economic Fluctuations and Welfare Changes：Based on An Endogenous Labor RBC Analytical Framework |
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| Abstract:This paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of China economic fluctuations; consumer welfare; endogenous labor；business cycle theorys economic fluctuations on consumer welfare by constructing an endogenous labor RBC model under three scenarios: general, divisible labor, and indivisible labor. We find that the welfare effect of economic fluctuations is highly dependent on consumers’ risk aversion. Fluctuations do not necessarily lead to welfare losses; under certain conditions, they can even enhance consumer welfare. Risklovers are able to benefit from actively adjusting their behavior in response to given fluctuations, and their welfare also exhibits larger amplitude variations. In contrast, riskaverse individuals tend to bear net welfare losses due to insufficient behavioral adjustments. Moreover, the indivisible labor model amplifies the welfare changes brought about by the same fluctuations more than the divisible labor model does, and the behavior of risklovers is more consistent with the reality of implicit unemployment in China’s labor market. Therefore, the government should pay attention to the differentiated structure of consumers’ risk preferences and adopt tailored policy measures to stabilize and enhance overall consumption willingness and capacity. |
| keywords:economic fluctuations consumer welfare endogenous labor business cycle theory |
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