我国跨境资本流动管理的金融稳定效应：基于输入性金融风险视角

孟昊1; 张荧天2

我国跨境资本流动管理的金融稳定效应：基于输入性金融风险视角

引用本文：孟昊1，张荧天2.我国跨境资本流动管理的金融稳定效应：基于输入性金融风险视角[J].财经理论与实践,2026,(1):2-9

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作者	单位
孟昊1，张荧天2	(1.天津财经大学金融学院,天津 300222；2.天津财经大学珠江学院经济学院,天津 301811)

中文摘要:基于输入性金融风险视角，采用TVP-SV-VAR模型，选取2006年1月—2024年12月时间序列数据，考察跨境资本流动管理对金融稳定的影响及作用机制。结果显示，跨境资本流动管理有利于维护我国金融稳定，且短期管理的金融稳定效应最强；汇率预期显著强化了跨境资本流动管理对输入性金融风险的防范作用。鉴于此，应充分发挥宏观审慎和资本管制在跨境资本流动管理中的政策搭配效应，完善跨境资本流动预警监测体系，加强央行对汇率预期的引导，健全维护国家金融稳定的长效机制。

中文关键词:跨境资本流动管理金融稳定输入性金融风险汇率预期全球金融周期

The Financial Stability Effect of Cross-Border Capital Flow Management in China: A Perspective of Imported Financial Risks

Abstract:Based on the perspective of imported financial risk and using the TVP-SV-VAR model, the time series data from January 2006 to December 2024 were selected to investigate the impact and mechanism of cross-border capital flow management on financial stability. The results show that cross-border capital flow management is conducive to maintaining China’s financial stability, and the short-term management has the strongest financial stability effect. Exchange rate expectations have significantly strengthened the preventive role of cross-border capital flow management in preventing imported financial risks. In view of this, it is necessary to give full play to the policy combination effect of macroprudential and capital control in the management of cross-border capital flows, improve the early warning and monitoring system for cross-border capital flows, strengthen the central bank’s guidance on exchange rate expectations, and improve the long-term mechanism for maintaining national financial stability.

keywords:cross-border capital flow management financial stability imported financial risks exchange rate expectation global financial cycle

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