| 基于CGE模型的中国碳税政策模拟分析研究 |
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| 引用本文：李子蔚.基于CGE模型的中国碳税政策模拟分析研究[J].财经理论与实践,2025,(6):127-134 |
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| 中文摘要:运用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，依据2018年投入产出表和2019年能源数据，模拟不同碳税情景对碳排放、宏观经济与能源结构的影响。结果显示，碳税通过价格效应引导低碳替代与消费转型，形成全社会减排合力，降低碳排放总量与强度，但对GDP、进出口及收入具负向效应；能源结构方面，煤炭占比降低，油气比重提高，清洁能源发展加快；行业层面，资源型和高耗能行业受冲击较大，公共管理、教育和科技服务等行业产出得到增长。鉴于此，中国碳税应在税制要素、征管方式和配套措施等方面科学设计，以平衡减排目标与经济发展。 |
| 中文关键词:碳排放 碳税 碳减排 可计算一般均衡模型 |
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| Simulation and Analysis of China’s Carbon Tax Policy Based on the Computable General Equilibrium Model |
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| Abstract:Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and drawing on China’s 2018 input-output table and 2019 energy statistics, this study simulates the effects of different carbon tax scenarios on carbon emissions, the macroeconomy, and the energy structure. The results show that carbon taxation, through price incentives, promotes low-carbon substitution and consumption transformation, thereby generating a society-wide synergy for emission reduction. It reduces both the aggregate level and intensity of carbon emissions, while exerting negative effects on GDP, trade, and household and corporate income. In terms of the energy structure, the share of coal declines, the shares of oil and natural gas increase, and the development of clean energy accelerates. At the industry level, resource-based and energy-intensive sectors are more severely affected, whereas public administration, education, and technology service sectors experience output expansion. In view of these findings, the design of a carbon tax in China should be scientifically formulated-covering tax elements, administrative arrangements, and supporting fiscal measures-to balance emission-reduction objectives with economic development. |
| keywords:carbon emissions carbon tax carbon emission reduction computable general equilibrium (CGE) model |
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