| 债务限额管理的房价溢出效应 |
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| 引用本文：邱国庆，李静雯.债务限额管理的房价溢出效应[J].财经理论与实践,2025,(6):61-69 |
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| 中文摘要:基于2009—2020年中国284个地级市的面板数据，实证考察债务限额管理如何影响房价溢出。结果显示：债务限额管理具有显著房价溢出效应，土地财政依赖会强化其溢出效应。同时，上述效应在城市等级低、财政透明度低、财政分权程度高和晋升激励强的地区尤为显著。进一步构建债务空间留存度指标发现，随着债务留存空间的不断压缩，债务限额管理的房价溢出效应能够得到有效遏制。鉴于此，要完善债务限额管理制度，扭转“以地融资”模式，采取差异化和精准化债务限额管理措施，预防风险共振，切断风险传导链条。 |
| 中文关键词:债务限额管理 房价 溢出效应 债务留存空间 |
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| The Spillover Effect of the Debt Limit Management on Housing Price |
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| Abstract:Using panel data of 284 prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2020, this paper empirically tests the impact of debt limit management on housing prices.The results reveal a significant spillover effect from debt limit management on housing prices, and land fiscal dependence can strengthen its spillover effect. Moreover, this spillover effect is particularly pronounced in lower city level, lower fiscal transparency, higher fiscal decentralization, and higher promotion incentives. Further analysis incorporating a measure of debt space retention demonstrates that the spillover effect can be effectively mitigated as the available debt space is progressively compressed. In light of these findings, it is necessary to improve debt limit management system, reverse land fiscal model, establish differentiated and precise debt limit policies, prevent risk resonance and weaken transmission chains. |
| keywords:debt limit management housing price spillover effect debt space retention degree |
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