| 人口老龄化对地方财政风险的影响：自缚还是破茧？ |
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| 引用本文：刘建民1,2，凌惠馨2，刘嘉意3.人口老龄化对地方财政风险的影响：自缚还是破茧？[J].财经理论与实践,2025,(5):80-87 |
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| 中文摘要:基于中国2012—2023年31个省份的面板数据，实证检验人口老龄化对地方财政风险的非线性影响。研究表明：人口老龄化与地方财政风险具有稳定的U形关系，在产业结构不够高级、中度关注数字经济以及中西部地区更为显著；人口老龄化通过区域创业活动、创新能力以及经济效能显著影响地方财政风险；有效劳动供给、老龄消费需求对U形关系具有负向调节作用。为此，应分级监测人口老龄化，因地制宜应对冲击；合理利用创业创新机制，促进经济提质增效；弹性供给释放经验红利，拉动内需缓释财政风险。 |
| 中文关键词:人口老龄化 地方财政风险 非线性关系 调节效应 |
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| The Impact of Population Aging on Local Fiscal Risks: Self-Binding or Breaking the Cocoon? |
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| Abstract:Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2023, this paper empirically tests the nonlinear impact of population aging on local fiscal risks. The study finds that: there is a stable “U”-shaped relationship between population aging and local fiscal risks, which is more significant in regions with less advanced industrial structures, medium-frequency attention to the digital economy, and located central and western regions; the population aging significantly affects local fiscal risks through entrepreneurship, innovation capacity and economic efficiency among the regions; and effective labor supply and consumption demand of the elderly have a negative moderating effect on the “U” -shaped relationship. To this end, efforts should be made to monitor the aging of the population at different levels and respond to the impact in accordance with local conditions; make rational use of entrepreneurship and innovation mechanisms to improve the quality and efficiency of the economy; release the dividend of experience through flexible supply, stimulate domestic demand and ease fiscal risks. |
| keywords:population aging local fiscal risk nonlinear relationship moderating effect |
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