金融集聚能有效提升区域经济韧性吗？——基于调节效应与门限效应的研究

刘莉君1; 2; 高晓杰3; 包一行1; 2

金融集聚能有效提升区域经济韧性吗？——基于调节效应与门限效应的研究

引用本文：刘莉君1,2，高晓杰3，包一行1,2.金融集聚能有效提升区域经济韧性吗？——基于调节效应与门限效应的研究[J].财经理论与实践,2025,(5):17-25

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作者	单位
刘莉君1,2，高晓杰3，包一行1,2	（1.湖南科技大学商学院，湖南湘潭 411201； 2.湖南省战略性新兴产业研究基地，湖南湘潭 411201；3.宁波金田铜业（集团）股份有限公司，浙江宁波 315034）

中文摘要:基于2009—2021年中国30个省份的面板数据，在实证检验金融集聚对区域经济韧性直接影响的基础上，进一步探讨政府干预的调节效应以及产业结构和消费结构的门限效应。结果表明：金融集聚对区域经济韧性提升有着显著的正向促进作用；政府干预在金融集聚影响区域经济韧性的过程中存在负向调节效应，即政府干预程度的加深会在一定程度上抑制金融集聚对区域经济韧性的提升作用；产业结构升级在金融集聚对区域经济韧性的影响中存在双重门限效应，门限值分别为0.852和1.053；消费结构升级在金融集聚对区域经济韧性的影响中存在单一门限效应，门限值为1.047。鉴于此，应加强区域间金融合作，深化金融市场化改革，着力促进产业与消费“双升级”，强化金融资源集聚拉动作用，以共建更具韧性的区域经济系统。

中文关键词:金融集聚区域经济韧性调节效应门限效应

Can Financial Agglomeration Effectively Improve Regional Economic Resilience? —A Study on Regulation Effect and Threshold Effect

Abstract:Based on the panel data of 30 provincial regions in China from 2009 to 2021, this paper empirically examines the direct impact of financial agglomeration on regional economic resilience, and further explores the moderating effect of government intervention and the threshold effect of industrial structure and consumption structure. The results show that: (1) Financial agglomeration has a significant positive promoting effect on the improvement of regional economic resilience; (2) Government intervention has a negative moderating effect in the process of financial agglomeration influencing regional economic resilience, that is, the deepening of government intervention will to some extent inhibit the promotional effect of financial agglomeration on regional economic resilience; (3) There is a double threshold effect of industrial structure upgrading in the impact of financial agglomeration on regional economic resilience, with threshold values of 0.852 and 1.053 respectively; (4) There is a single threshold effect of consumption structure upgrading in the impact of financial agglomeration on regional economic resilience, with a threshold value of 1.047. In view of this, we should strengthen inter-regional financial cooperation and deepen the reform of financial marketization. The government should focus on promoting the “double upgrading” of industry and consumption, and strengthen the pulling role of financial resources agglomeration, so as to jointly build a more resilient regional economic system.

keywords:financial agglomeration regional economic resilience regulation effect threshold effect

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