| 企业尾部系统风险具有供应链传染效应吗？ |
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| 引用本文：李政1,李纪欣2,张鲁瑶1.企业尾部系统风险具有供应链传染效应吗？[J].财经理论与实践,2025,(5):2-9 |
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| 中文摘要:基于2010—2022年沪深A股上市公司披露的前五大客户与供应商信息，构建“焦点企业-上下游企业”的供应链体系，考察企业尾部系统风险的供应链传染效应。研究表明：尾部系统风险具有显著的供应链传染效应，上下游企业尾部系统风险上升会使焦点企业尾部系统风险同向变动；供应链上下游企业尾部系统风险通过焦点企业经营业绩这一渠道影响其尾部系统风险，且焦点企业良好的供应链效率能显著缓解尾部系统风险的传染效应；供应链上下游企业尾部系统风险对规模较小、议价能力较弱以及国有焦点企业的传染效应更强。据此，提出企业应加强供应链体系内风险传染的监管和防范，完善供应链合作机制、优化库存管理策略，为保障企业生产经营稳定提供了决策参考。 |
| 中文关键词:尾部系统风险 供应链 风险传染 供应链效率 |
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| Does Enterprises’ Systematic Tail Risk Have a Supply Chain Contagion Effect? |
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| Abstract:Based on the information of the top five customers and suppliers disclosed by Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed enterprises from 2010 to 2022, a supply chain system of “focal enterprises - upstream and downstream enterprises” is constructed to examine the supply chain contagion effect of systematic tail risks in enterprises. The results show that systematic tail risks exhibit a significant supply chain contagion effect, where an increase in systematic tail risks of upstream and downstream enterprises leads to a corresponding change in the systematic tail risks of focal enterprises. The systematic tail risks of upstream and downstream enterprises influence the systematic tail risks of focal enterprises through the channel of operational performance, and the good supply chain efficiency of focal enterprises can significantly mitigate the contagion effect of systematic tail risks. The contagion effect of systematic tail risks of upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain is stronger for focal enterprises with smaller scale, weaker bargaining power and state-owned nature. Accordingly, it is suggested that enterprises should enhance the supervision and prevention of risk contagion within the supply chain system, improve the supply chain cooperation mechanism, and optimize inventory management strategies. This paper provides decision-making reference to ensure the stability of enterprise production and operation. |
| keywords:systematic tail risk supply chain risk contagion supply chain efficiency |
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