财政收入分权对农业与服务业融合发展的影响效应研究

陈颖

财政收入分权对农业与服务业融合发展的影响效应研究

引用本文：陈颖.财政收入分权对农业与服务业融合发展的影响效应研究[J].财经理论与实践,2025,(4):67-73

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作者	单位
陈颖	（广东技术师范大学财经学院，广东广州 510665）

中文摘要:依据2011—2021年中国31个省、自治区、直辖市的数据，考量财政收入分权对农业与服务业融合发展的非线性效应、中介效应以及边际效应。结果显示：随着地方财政收入分权程度的不断提高，农业与服务业融合发展水平表现为先下降后上升的变化态势，二者呈现“U”形关系；中介效应检验表明，财政收入分权通过城镇化对农业与服务业融合发展的影响呈现显著的先负后正特征；分位数回归结果表明，财政收入分权对农业与服务业融合发展的显著影响集中在中高分位点，并且随着农业与服务业融合发展水平的不断提升，财政收入分权对农业与服务业融合发展的“U”形影响逐渐变大；不同区域的分位数回归结果进一步揭示，中国财政收入分权对农业与服务业融合发展的“U”形影响主要分布在南方地区而非北方地区。

中文关键词:财政收入分权农业与服务业融合发展影响效应

Study on the Effect of Fiscal Revenue Decentralization on the Integrated Development of Agriculture and Service Industry

Abstract:Based on the data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2011 to 2021, this paper empirically examines the nonlinear, intermediate and marginal effects of fiscal revenue decentralization on the integrated development of agriculture and service industry. The results show that with the continuous improvement of the degree of decentralization of local fiscal revenue, the integrated development level of agriculture and service industry shows a change trend of first decreasing and then rising, and the two show a “U” shaped relationship. The intermediary effect shows that the impact of fiscal revenue decentralization on the integrated development of agriculture and service industry through urbanization is significantly negative and then positive. The quantile regression results show that the significant impact of fiscal revenue decentralization on the integrated development of agriculture and service industry is concentrated in the middle and high quantiles, and with the continuous improvement of the integrated development level of agriculture and service industry, the “U” shaped impact of fiscal revenue decentralization on the integrated development of agriculture and service industry gradually increases. The quantile regression results of different regions further show that the “U” shaped impact of fiscal revenue decentralization on the integrated development of agriculture and service industry in China is mainly in the southern region rather than the northern region.

keywords:fiscal revenue decentralization integrated development of agriculture and service industry impact effect

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