全球金融周期的就业市场超调效应

胡晓涛1; 李宣1; 刘宇卓2

全球金融周期的就业市场超调效应

引用本文：胡晓涛1，李宣1，刘宇卓2.全球金融周期的就业市场超调效应[J].财经理论与实践,2025,(4):28-34

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作者	单位
胡晓涛1，李宣1，刘宇卓2	（1.安徽大学经济学院，安徽合肥 230601；2.黑龙江科技大学经济学院，黑龙江哈尔滨 150022）

中文摘要:依据2006—2022年我国上市企业非平衡面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型，考量了全球金融周期对我国就业市场的影响。结果表明，全球金融周期波动导致我国就业市场超调，当全球金融处于繁荣期时，我国企业的超额雇员现象增加；反之，全球金融转向衰退期时，企业的超额雇员现象减少，甚至出现雇佣不足。机制检验显示，企业融资约束、劳动力流动性和经济政策不确定性是全球金融周期影响企业超额雇员的主要传导路径。鉴于此，建议实施逆周期的人才政策、优化企业融资环境、完善经济政策预期管理，以对冲全球金融周期带来的就业市场波动。

中文关键词:全球金融周期就业市场超额雇员融资约束

The Overshoot Effect of the Global Financial Cycle on Employment Market

Abstract:Based on the unbalanced panel data of China’s listed companies from 2006 to 2022, this paper uses a two-way fixed effect model to analyzes the impact of the global financial cycle on China’s employment market.The results show that the fluctuations of the global financial cycle lead to the overshoot of China’s employment market. When the global finance is in the boom period, the phenomenon of excess employees in Chinese enterprises increases. When the global finance turns to the recession period, the phenomenon of excess employees in enterprises decreases, and even underemployment occurs.The mechanism test shows that corporate financing constraints, labor mobility and economic policy uncertainty are the main transmission paths of the global financial cycle affecting corporate excess employees. In view of this, it is suggested to implement countercyclical talent policies, optimize the enterprise financing environment, and improve the expected management of economic policies to hedge against job market fluctuations caused by the global financial cycle.

keywords:global financial cycle employment market excess employees financing constraints

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