| 何以化解基本医疗保险基金支付风险？ |
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| 引用本文：张心洁1,2,喻霞1.何以化解基本医疗保险基金支付风险？[J].财经理论与实践,2025,(3):49-56 |
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| 中文摘要:依据第七次全国人口普查和中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）等数据，系统构建人口预测和医保精算模型，深入剖析基本医疗保险基金的长期财务运行状况与财政负担。研究发现：提高生育率能显著削弱医保基金的赤字风险和缓解财政压力；实施减缓医疗费用增速、完全门诊共济保障、延迟退休年龄等改革，可进一步减轻财政负担。鉴于此，应加快健全生育支持体系，拓宽医保基金筹集渠道，提升医保现代化治理能力。 |
| 中文关键词:“全面三孩”政策 基本医疗保险 基金可持续 财政负担 |
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| How to Resolve the Payment Risk of the Fund of Basic Medical Insurance？ |
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| Abstract:Based on data from the Seventh National Population Census and the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study systematically constructs population prediction and medical insurance actuarial models to thoroughly analyze the long-term financial operation status and fiscal burden of the basic medical insurance fund. The research finds that increasing the fertility rate can significantly mitigate the deficit risk of the medical insurance fund and alleviate fiscal pressure. Implementing reforms such as slowing the growth rate of medical expenses, fully implementing outpatient mutual-assistance guarantees, and delaying the retirement age can further reduce the fiscal burden. In light of this, it is imperative to accelerate the improvement of the fertility support system, broaden the fundraising channels for the medical insurance fund, and enhance the modern governance capacity of medical insurance. |
| keywords:universal three-child policy basic medical insurance fund sustainability fiscal burden |
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