| 基本养老保险对青年劳动力生育意愿的影响——基于收入与替代效应交互视角的检验 |
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| 引用本文：范红丽1，张晓慧2 ，盖振睿3.基本养老保险对青年劳动力生育意愿的影响——基于收入与替代效应交互视角的检验[J].财经理论与实践,2025,(1):35-42 |
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| 中文摘要:依据中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据，运用个体固定效应模型，考量基本养老保险对我国已婚青年劳动力生育意愿的影响。结果表明，基本养老保险显著促进了已婚青年劳动力的生育意愿；这一影响存在异质性，对36~45岁、男性、农村、家庭收入较低的青年劳动力生育意愿的促进作用更为明显；机制分析表明基本养老保险对生育意愿的替代效应不明显，而是通过提高生活幸福感和当期消费支出从而提升已婚青年劳动力的生育意愿，表现为显著的收入效应。鉴于此，需要注重基本养老保险制度和其他社会福利政策的配套和协调，从而有效释放生育需求，促进我国育龄劳动力生育意愿的提高。 |
| 中文关键词:生育意愿 养老保险 青年劳动力 收入效应 替代效应 |
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| The Effect of Basic Pension Insurance on Youth Labors’ Childbearing Intention：A Test for Income and Substitution Effect |
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| Abstract:Using the data from China Labor-force Dynamic Survey (CLDS) and the fixed-effect model, the study examined the effect of basic pension insurance on childbearing intention, and focused on the married youth labors in China. The basic pension insurance significantly promoted the childbearing intention of youth labors in China. Also, the basic pension insurance had greatest positive effect for people aged 36-45, male, rural residents and the group with low-income. The mechanism analysis found that the substitution effect of basic pension insurance on childbearing intention can be ignored, but income effect was strong, which indicated that pension insurance increased the childbearing intention by improving life happiness and current consumption expenditure of youth labors. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the matching and coordination of the basic pension insurance and other social welfare policies, so as to effectively promote the married youth labors’ childbearing intention in China. |
| keywords:childbearing intention basic pension insurance youth labors income effect substitution effect |
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