| 负面舆论与对外直接投资二元边际——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例 |
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| 引用本文：杨立卓1，刘俊2，许青云1.负面舆论与对外直接投资二元边际——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例[J].财经理论与实践,2024,(6):51-58 |
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| 中文摘要:依据2009—2019年“一带一路”沿线59个国家面板数据，考量沿线国家涉华负面舆论对我国对外直接投资二元边际的影响。结果显示，负面舆论对扩展边际存在显著的抑制作用，对集约边际的抑制作用在后期才能显现。调节效应显示：东道国民众话语权和高层互访分别能缓解负面舆论对OFDI扩展边际和集约边际的抑制作用。进一步分析表明，环境敏感类、资源能源类和金融类投资企业受“一带一路”沿线国家负面舆论的影响较大，负面舆论对绿地投资和跨国并购均呈显著倒“U”形关系。鉴于此，需高度重视涉华舆论导向，传播好中国形象，推进沿线国家高层互访，积极与东道国民众沟通，加强海外投资环境保护意识，降低OFDI的舆论风险。 |
| 中文关键词:OFDI二元边际 负面舆论 “一带一路” GDELT |
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| Negative Public Opinion and Chinese Enterprises’ OFDI Binary Margins—Taking Countries along “the Belt and Road” as Examples |
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| Abstract:Based on the panel data of 59 countries along the Belt and Road from 2009 to 2019, the influence of China-related negative public opinion on the binary margin of China’s OFDI in these countries is analyzed.The results show that negative public opinion has a significant inhibitory effect on the expansion margin, while the inhibitory effect on the intensive margin only becomes apparent in the later stage. The moderating effect finds that the public’s right to speak and high-level visits of host countries can alleviate the inhibitory effect of negative public opinion on OFDI’s expanding margin and intensive margin respectively. Further analysis shows that environmentally sensitive, resource-energy and financial investment enterprises are greatly affected by negative public opinion in countries along the Belt and Road, and negative public opinion has a significant “U-shaped” relationship to greenfield investment and cross-border mergers and acquisitions. In view of this, it is necessary to attach great importance to the orientation of China-related public opinion, spread the image of China well, promote high-level visits of countries along the Belt and Road, actively communicate with the host country’s public, strengthen the awareness of overseas investment environmental protection, and reduce the risk of OFDI public opinion. |
| keywords:OFDI binary margins negative public opinion “the Belt and Road” GDELT |
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