| 货币政策不确定性、风险承担与银行信贷期限 |
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| 引用本文：顾海峰，周祉晴.货币政策不确定性、风险承担与银行信贷期限[J].财经理论与实践,2024,(5):2-9 |
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| 中文摘要:基于中国商业银行的微观数据，构建面板回归模型，考察货币政策不确定性对银行信贷期限的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：货币政策不确定性对银行信贷期限具有缩减效应。货币政策不确定性加大了银行风险承担，促使银行更倾向于短期信贷配置决策而引致信贷期限缩减效应，“货币政策不确定性—风险承担—银行信贷期限”的传导渠道有效。此外，宏观审慎政策、跨境资本流动及银行家乐观度均能够负向调节货币政策不确定性引发的信贷期限缩减效应。基于此，为防控以信贷期限为特征的时间维度的银行业系统性风险，应建立及完善货币政策与宏观审慎政策相互协作调控的双支柱政策框架，并优化跨境资本开放时序以及构建基于货币政策感受指数的银行家乐观度监测机制。 |
| 中文关键词:货币政策不确定性 银行信贷期限 银行风险承担 宏观审慎政策 跨境资本流动 |
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| Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Risk-Taking and Bank Credit Term |
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| Abstract:Based on the micro data of Chinese commercial banks, a panel regression model is constructed to investigate the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on bank credit term and its mechanism. The results show that monetary policy uncertainty has a narrowing effect on bank credit term. Monetary policy uncertainty increases risk-taking, prompting banks to be more inclined to short-term credit allocation decisions, resulting in the effect of credit term reduction, and the transmission channel of “monetary policy uncertainty-risk-taking-bank credit term” is effective. In addition, macro-prudential policy, cross-border capital flows, and banking prosperity can negatively adjust the effect of credit maturity reduction caused by monetary policy uncertainty. Based on this, in order to prevent and control the systemic risk of the banking industry in the time dimension characterized by credit term, it is necessary to establish and improve a two-pillar policy framework where monetary policy and macro-prudential policy are coordinated and regulated, optimize the timing of cross-border capital opening, and construct a bankers’ optimism monitoring mechanism based on the monetary policy sentiment index. |
| keywords:monetary policy uncertainty bank credit term bank’s risk-taking macro-prudential policy cross-border capital flow |
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