| 三四线城市房价为何坐上“过山车”——基于棚户区改造与货币化安置政策的视角 |
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| 引用本文：马 理，桑 迪，许洋滋.三四线城市房价为何坐上“过山车”——基于棚户区改造与货币化安置政策的视角[J].财经理论与实践,2023,(5):2-11 |
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| 中文摘要:检验棚户区改造与货币化安置政策导致三四线城市房地产价格出现波动的特征事实，构建包含棚户区家庭、实体生产企业、房地产企业、实施棚户区改造与货币化安置政策的政府的DSGE模型，研究棚户区改造与不同程度的货币化安置政策对三四线城市的房地产价格和经济发展的影响机理，并比较三种调控政策（提高房贷利率、增加房地产供给、降低货币化安置比例）的调控效果。结果显示：棚户区改造过程中的货币化安置政策对三四线城市的房价上涨起到了较为明显的放大作用，且对居民消费和实体经济产生了负面影响。鉴于此，建议降低货币化安置比例和棚户区居民的购房杠杆，约束三四线城市过度上涨的房价，引导三四线城市的房地产市场健康发展。 |
| 中文关键词:三四线城市房价 棚户区改造 货币化安置政策 |
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| Why House Prices in Third- and Fourth-tier Cities are on a “Roller Coaster”?—A Perspective on Shantytown Improvement and Monetized Resettlement Policy |
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| Abstract:The article examines the characteristic facts that shantytown renovation and monetized resettlement policies lead to fluctuations in real estate prices in the third- and fourth-tier cities. It constructs a DSGE model that includes shantytown households, real production enterprises, real estate enterprises, and the government that implements shantytown renovation and monetized resettlement policies, and studies the mechanism of the impact of shantytown renovation and different degrees of monetized resettlement policies on real estate prices and economic development in the third- and fourth-tier cities. It also compares the regulatory effects of three regulatory policies (increasing mortgage interest rates, increasing real estate supply, and decreasing the proportion of monetized resettlement). The results show that the monetized resettlement policy in the process of shantytown renovation has played a more obvious role in amplifying the rise of housing prices in the third- and fourth-tier cities and has had a negative impact on residents’ consumption and the real economy. In view of this, it is recommended to reduce the monetized resettlement ratio and the home purchase leverage of shantytown residents, to restrain the overly rising house prices, and to guide the healthy development of the real estate market in third and fourth-tier cities. |
| keywords:house prices in third- and fourth-tier cities shantytown renovation monetized resettlement policy |
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