经济政策不确定性、金融稳定与经济波动——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的动态分析

宋长青; 张  羽

经济政策不确定性、金融稳定与经济波动——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的动态分析

引用本文：宋长青，张羽.经济政策不确定性、金融稳定与经济波动——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的动态分析[J].财经理论与实践,2023,(2):32-37

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作者	单位
宋长青，张羽	（西安财经大学经济学院，陕西西安 710100）

中文摘要:当前形势复杂多变，调控政策的实施会影响经济金融平稳运行。运用TVP-SV-VAR模型分析经济政策不确定性、金融稳定与经济波动三者之间的时变关系。结果表明：经济政策不确定性对金融稳定的影响具有时变特征。在经济平稳期，经济政策不确定性升高会降低金融稳定性；在经济不平稳期间，经济政策不确定性升高反而会提升金融稳定性。经济波动与金融稳定之间的影响效应存在非对称性。监管当局需完善宏观调控跨周期设计和调节机制，确保经济平稳运行。

中文关键词:政策不确定性金融稳定经济波动 TVP-SV-VAR模型

Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Stability and Economic Fluctuation —A Dynamic Analysis Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model

Abstract:The current situation is complex and changeable. The implementation of regulatory policies will affect the smooth operation of economy and finance. This paper uses TVP-SV-VAR model to analyze the time-varying relationship among economic policy uncertainty, financial stability and economic fluctuation. The results show that the impact of economic policy uncertainty on financial stability is time-varying. In the period of economic stability, the increase of economic policy uncertainty will reduce financial stability; during the period of economic instability, the increase of economic policy uncertainty will enhance financial stability. There is asymmetry between economic fluctuation and financial stability. The regulatory authorities need to improve the cross cycle design and regulation mechanism of macro-control to ensure the smooth operation of the economy.

keywords:policy uncertainty financial stability economic fluctuations TVP-SV-VAR model

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