| 生态条件约束下的粮食可持续问题研究 |
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| 引用本文：刘慕华1 ,肖国安1，钟腾龙2.生态条件约束下的粮食可持续问题研究[J].财经理论与实践,2022,(6):108-115 |
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| 中文摘要:依据2003—2021年间31个省（区、市）面板数据，运用固定效应模型，考量农业禀赋、气候变化、投入、种粮效益、贸易以及生态相关要素对粮食可持续发展的作用。结果表明：粮食可持续能力整体呈下降趋势，受种植面积、有效灌溉面积、塑料薄膜使用量、除涝面积的正向影响，同时受水资源矛盾、自然灾害程度、化肥和农药强度高，以及成本利润率、竞争力度低的制约；进一步研究发现，生产成本高企的制约效应远高于种植面积和生态要素的积极效应。鉴于此，政府应着力降低粮食生产成本和化学性要素投入强度，提高农户种粮效益、生态投入，以及增强水利设施功能，降低自然灾害带来的负面影响。 |
| 中文关键词:生态约束条件 粮食可持续能力 可持续生产 可持续供给 |
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| Study on Grain Sustainability Under Ecological Constraints |
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| Abstract:According to the panel data of the thirty-one provinces of China between 2002 and 2021, this paper adopts the fixed effect model to examine the impact of agricultural endowment, climate change, input, planting benefit, trade, and ecological factors on the sustainable development of China’s grain production and supply. It concludes that China’s food sustainability is declining. The area of planting, effective irrigation, and waterlogging control, as well as the consumption of plastic film, have positive effects on it. Meanwhile, the contradiction of water resources, natural disasters, the huge consumption of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, the poor profit/cost ratio, and the lack of trade competitiveness, restrict China’s grain sustainable development. The excessive cost of grain production seriously limits the development, even the positive effects of wide planting area and ecological factors are insufficient to offset. To address this issue, this paper puts forward suggestions to China’s government below: cutting the cost of grain production, degrading the intensity of chemical input factors, stepping up efforts to production subsidies and ecological input, further improving grain production efficiency, increasing the proportion of grain planting and the investment on the infrastructure construction of agricultural water conservancy, strengthening ecological governance and protection to reduce the negative impact of natural disasters. |
| keywords:ecological constraints grain sustainability sustainable grain production sustainable grain supply |
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