| 减税降费与地方财政风险防范——基于“营改增”的准自然实验 |
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| 引用本文：刘建民1，2，赵 桁2，唐 畅3.减税降费与地方财政风险防范——基于“营改增”的准自然实验[J].财经理论与实践,2022,(5):56-65 |
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| 中文摘要:立足我国“十四五”期间继续实施减税降费和防范化解重大风险的现实需要，构建包含地方财政收支缺口和债务水平的地方财政风险衡量指标，实证检验“营改增”这一减税降费政策对地方财政风险的影响。研究发现：“营改增”后，地方财政风险有所增大，且主要来自债务风险的增大，而非地方财政收支缺口的变化；该效应在经济发达的大城市较显著，在中小城市并不明显；“营改增”后，地方财政努力程度的提升尤其是非税收入的增加在一定程度上缓解了减税引发的财政收支失衡，但地方政府投资需求的增大则会推动地方政府债务扩张，从而增大地方财政风险。 |
| 中文关键词:减税降费 地方财政风险 “营改增” 准自然实验 |
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| Tax Cuts and Fee Reduction and Local Fiscal Risk Prevention-Quasi Natural Experiment Based on “Replacing Business Tax with VAT” |
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| Abstract:Based on the actual requirements of continuing to implement the tax reduction policy and preventing and resolving major risks during the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” period, this paper builds a local fiscal risk measurement index, including the gap between local fiscal revenue and expenditure, and the debt level, and empirically tests the impact of the tax cuts and fee reduction policy of “Replacing Business Tax with VAT” on local fiscal risks. There are three findings in this paper. Firstly, the local fiscal risk has increased after the implementation of “Replacing Business Tax with VAT”, mainly due to the growth of debt risk rather than the change of the gap between local fiscal revenue and expenditure; secondly, the effect is more significant in big cities with developed economies than in small and medium-sized cities; thirdly, after the implementation of “Replacing Business Tax with VAT”, the improvement of financial efforts, especially the increase in non-tax revenue, has made up for the gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure caused by tax cut, but the growth in government investment demand may promote the expansion of local government debt, thereby increasing the local fiscal risk. |
| keywords:tax cuts and fee reduction local fiscal risk “replacing business tax with VAT” quasi-natural experiment |
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