制度异质性、外生冲击与对外贸易结构——基于断点回归的短期与长期判断

梁向东; 井中鸣; 陈懋林

制度异质性、外生冲击与对外贸易结构——基于断点回归的短期与长期判断

引用本文：梁向东,井中鸣,陈懋林.制度异质性、外生冲击与对外贸易结构——基于断点回归的短期与长期判断[J].财经理论与实践,2022,(2):58-66

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作者	单位
梁向东,井中鸣,陈懋林	（长沙理工大学经济与管理学院，湖南长沙 410114）

中文摘要:引入国别治理异质性，依据中国海关总署2019年1月-2020年12月统计月报数据，采用事件分析、断点回归法，检验新冠肺炎疫情冲击对中国出口贸易结构的影响。结果表明，短期内，新冠肺炎疫情对于我国进出口贸易活动有显著抑制性影响，资本与劳动密集型出口部门受到非对称冲击，出现暂时性贸易结构优化现象；基于制度异质性效应，中国与应对失效型贸易伙伴间的贸易结构变化更显著；长期内，若运用制度治理优势，能推动中国禀赋结构改善，以期实现我国对外贸易结构长久性优化。

中文关键词:新冠肺炎疫情对外贸易结构断点回归夜光遥感数据

Institutional Heterogeneity, External Impact and Structure of Foreign Trade ——Short and Long term Judgment Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

Abstract:By introducing the heterogeneity of country governance, this paper introduces COVID-19 as an exogenous shock, analyzes the short-term and long-term theoretical mechanism of its impact on export trade structure, and puts forward relevant hypotheses. We analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on China’s export trade structure by using event analysis and regression discontinuity design based on the monthly statistical data of the General Administration of Customs from January 2019 to December 2020. The research shows that in the short term, COVID-19 has a significant inhibiting effect on China’s import and export trade activities, and capital and labor-intensive export sectors are asymmetrically impacted, leading to temporary trade structure optimization. Based on the effect of institutional heterogeneity, China’s main trading partners are grouped, and the trade structure changes between China and the coping failure trading partners are more significant. In the long run, if we can seize the opportunity brought by the epidemic, it will help to change China’s endowment structure, so as to realize the long-term optimization of foreign trade structure.

keywords:COVID-19 China’s foreign trade structure regression discontinuity design remote sensing of nighttime light

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