| 地方隐性债务规模的统计核算与成因分析 |
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| 引用本文：易 奔1，卢彦瑾2，欧阳胜银3，马守荣2.地方隐性债务规模的统计核算与成因分析[J].财经理论与实践,2022,(1):95-103 |
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| 中文摘要:从狭义和广义两个视角界定地方隐性债务的内涵与核算边界，采用核算法分别测度2007—2018年狭义地方隐性债务和广义地方隐性债务的规模，结果发现其量巨大且年增速分别为4.44%和5.66%；在样本期内，狭义地方隐性债务呈现平缓上升的特征，广义地方隐性债务则具有明显的波动性增长趋势。对地方隐性债务规模及成因进行量化分析发现，政策性补贴是狭义地方隐性债务的重点构成部分，PPP和狭义隐性债务是广义地方隐性债务较大的主要内部原因，而公益项目投资力度、财权与事权不匹配则是诱发变相举债的重要外部因素。 |
| 中文关键词:地方隐性债务 变相举债 统计核算 成因分析 |
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| Statistical Accounting and Cause Analysis of the Scale of Local Implicit Debt |
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| Abstract:Local implicit debt has not been effectively observed because of its strong concealment, but its scale several times that of explicit debt is of great significance for the study of regional debt security and financial system stability. Firstly, the connotation and accounting boundary of the local implicit debt are defined from the narrow and broad perspectives. Then, the accounting method is used to measure the scale of the local implicit debt in the narrow sense and that in the broad sense from 2007 to 2018. It is found that the amount of the local implicit debt in the narrow sense is huge and the average growth rate is 4.44% and 5.66% respectively. During the sample period, the local implicit debt in the narrow sense shows the characteristics of gentle rise, and the local implicit debt in the broad sense shows the characteristics of gentle rise. Debt has an obvious trend of volatility growth. Through the quantitative analysis of the scale and causes of the local implicit debt, it is found that the policy subsidy is the key component of the narrow sense local implicit debt, PPP and the narrow sense implicit debt are the main internal causes of the larger broad sense local implicit debt, while the public welfare project investment, the mismatch of financial rights and administrative rights are the important external factors that induce the disguised debt. |
| keywords:local implicit debt borrowing in disguise statistical accounting cause analysis |
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