人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响:促进还是抑制?——基于金融结构视角的分析
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引用本文:龙海明,闫文哲,欧阳佳俊.人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响:促进还是抑制?——基于金融结构视角的分析[J].财经理论与实践,2021,(6):44-51
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作者单位
龙海明,闫文哲,欧阳佳俊 (湖南大学 金融与统计学院湖南 长沙 410079) 
中文摘要:基于省际面板数据,建立动态面板模型,利用系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)等计量模型考察老龄化、金融结构与产业结构三者间的作用机制。研究表明:老龄化不仅能直接促进产业结构升级,还会通过改变金融结构安排而影响产业结构升级。老龄化对产业结构升级的促进作用受到金融结构单一门槛效应的影响,当金融结构水平越过门槛值而偏向金融市场主导型时,老龄化对产业结构升级的促进作用显著增大。进一步分析发现,在不同区域这一结论存在显著差异:当金融结构偏向金融市场主导型时,东部地区老龄化对产业结构升级的促进作用增强,西部地区的促进作用减弱,而中部地区的门槛效应不显著。
中文关键词:老龄化  金融结构  产业结构升级  影响效应
 
The Impact of Population Aging on the Upgrading of Industrial Structure: Promotion or Suppression?——Empirical Analysis Based on the Perspective of Financial Structure
Abstract:Based on inter-provincial panel data, this paper established a dynamic panel model, and used the system of generalized moment estimation (SYS-GMM) and other econometric models to investigate the mechanism of aging, financial structure and industrial structure. The research concluded that aging can not only directly promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, but also affect the upgrading of the industrial structure by changing the financial structure. The role of aging in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure is affected by the single threshold effect of the financial structure. When the level of financial structure crosses the threshold and tends to be dominated by the financial market, the role of aging in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure increases significantly. There are significant differences in this conclusion in different regions: when the financial structure is biased towards the financial market dominance, the aging effect of the eastern region will increase the promotion of industrial structure upgrading, the promoting effect of the western region will be weakened, and the threshold effect of the central region will be insignificant.
keywords:aging  financial structure  industrial structure upgrade  effect
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