基于PSR模型的我国社会重大风险评估体系研究

刘 革; 邓庆彪; 蔡耀星

基于PSR模型的我国社会重大风险评估体系研究

引用本文：刘革，邓庆彪，蔡耀星.基于PSR模型的我国社会重大风险评估体系研究[J].财经理论与实践,2021,(5):34-41

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作者	单位
刘革，邓庆彪，蔡耀星	（湖南大学金融与统计学院，湖南长沙 410079）

中文摘要:基于PSR模型构建我国社会重大风险评估指标体系，根据聚类分析筛选有效指标，用冗余度和变异系数法对筛选后的指标体系进行有效性检验。采用标准离差法、CRITIC法和熵值法分别计算压力、状态和响应维度指标权重，计算不同地区在不同时期的压力指数、状态指数、响应指数和反映我国社会重大风险总体状况的总指数。从时间趋势和空间差异上分析了不同地区的各个指数变动情况。研究表明：一个国家或地区的社会重大风险状况取决于社会系统主体对社会重大风险源和形成的社会重大风险的处理。

中文关键词:PSR模型社会重大风险评估体系指数

Research on Chinese Social Significant Risk Assessment System Based on PSR Model

Abstract:This paper aims to build a major social-risk assessment index system in China using a PSR model. Effective indicators are filtered out using cluster analysis and the validity of the screened index system is tested by redundancy and coefficient of variation methods. In addition, this work uses the standard deviation method, CRITIC method, and the entropy method to calculate the weights of the pressure, state, and response dimensions respectively. As a result, the pressure index, state index, response index of different regions in different periods, and hence the total index reflecting the overall situation of major social risks in China can be calculated. Lastly, this work also analyzes changes of various indexes in different regions of China from the perspective of time trends and spatial differences. Our results suggest that the status of the major social risk in a country or a region depends on how the social system handles the source and the consequence of the major social risk. 

keywords:PSR model major social risk evaluation system index

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