基于CGE模型的碳税政策双重红利效应研究
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引用本文:李 毅,石威正,胡宗义 .基于CGE模型的碳税政策双重红利效应研究[J].财经理论与实践,2021,(4):82-89
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李 毅,石威正,胡宗义  (湖南大学 金融与统计学院,湖南 长沙 410006) 
中文摘要:以2017年投入产出表为基础,编制了社会核算矩阵,通过可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型系统地分析了在不同碳税水平下碳税征收对能源-经济-环境系统的影响,进而揭示碳税政策的实施能否实现环境保护与经济发展的双重红利效应。研究结果显示,征收碳税能够减少化石能源的消费,促进二氧化碳排放量的减少,且随着碳税水平的提高,其降碳效果更加明显。同时,征收碳税有助于产业结构转型,但对经济增长、居民消费与企业收入具有显著的负向冲击。在短期内,碳税政策无法实现降碳促增的双重红利效应。因此,为实现环境保护与经济发展的双赢局面,在实施碳税政策的同时应该辅以合理的经济政策。
中文关键词:碳税  能源-经济-环境系统  双重红利  可计算一般均衡模型
 
Research on Double Dividend of Carbon Tax Policy Based on CGE Model
Abstract:Based on the 2017 input-output table, this paper compiles a social accounting matrix, and systematically analyses the impact of carbon tax collection on the energy-economy-environment system under different carbon tax levels through a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, and then reveals whether the implementation of the carbon tax policy can achieve the double dividend effect of environmental protection and economic development. The results show that the levy of carbon tax can reduce the consumption of fossil energy and promote the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, and as the level of carbon tax increases, its carbon reduction effect is more obvious. At the same time, levying carbon tax will contribute to the transformation of the industrial structure, but it will have a significant negative impact on economic growth, household consumption and corporate income. In the short term, the carbon tax policy cannot achieve the double dividend effect of reducing carbon and promoting growth. Therefore, in order to achieve a win-win situation of environmental protection and economic development, the implementation of carbon tax policies should be supplemented by reasonable economic policies.
keywords:carbon tax  energy-economy-environment system  double dividend  computable general equilibrium model
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