| 积极财政政策对中国宏观经济的动态时变影响——以重大突发公共卫生事件为视角 |
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| 引用本文：温桂荣1，黄纪强1，李艳丰2.积极财政政策对中国宏观经济的动态时变影响——以重大突发公共卫生事件为视角[J].财经理论与实践,2021,(3):101-109 |
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| 中文摘要:采用带有随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型（TVP VAR），基于1999年1月-2020年8月的月度数据动态识别中国积极财政政策对宏观经济的影响，并进一步刻画不同时点的重大突发公共卫生事件下积极财政政策与宏观经济之间的变动关系。研究结果表明：基于时变脉冲响应分析发现，财政政策对中国宏观经济波动存在显著的时变特征，表现出明显的非线性关系，不同时期的财政政策工具对宏观经济影响存在差异；基于时点脉冲响应分析发现，重大突发公共卫生事件下积极财政政策有利于促进产出、消费及贸易，但在短期会引起通货紧缩。对新冠肺炎疫情和“非典”疫情冲击的比较发现，积极财政政策对“新冠”疫情的刺激作用较显著，财政支出与财政收入政策对两次疫情下中国宏观经济影响在前期存在差异。 |
| 中文关键词:积极财政政策 重大突发公共卫生事件 宏观经济 TVP VAR |
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| The Dynamic Time Varying Impact of Active Fiscal Policy on China's Macroeconomics Based on the Perspective of Major Public Health Emergencies |
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| Abstract:This paper adopts a time varying parametric structural vector autoregressive model (TVP VAR) with stochastic volatility to dynamically identify the macroeconomic impact of active fiscal policy in China based on monthly data from January 1999 to August 2020, and further characterizes the change in the relationship between the active fiscal policy and the macroeconomics under major public health emergencies at different time points. The findings show that based on time varying impulse response analysis, it is found that there are significant time varying characteristics of fiscal policy on macroeconomic fluctuations in China, showing a significant non linear relationship, and there are differences in the macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy instruments in different periods. Besides, it is also found that active fiscal policy under major public health emergencies is conducive to boosting output, consumption and trade, but in the short term it will cause deflation. Comparing the impact of active fiscal policy on the COVID 19 and SARS, it is found that it exerts a more significant stimulus effect on the COVID 19, and the macroeconomic impact of fiscal expenditure and revenue policies differed between the two epidemics in the earlier period. The above study can be used to determine the magnitude of the impact of active fiscal policy on the macroeconomics under major public health emergencies, and provide a reference for decision making to promote the transformation of government financial resources into a driving force for quality economic development. |
| keywords:fiscal policy major public health emergencies macroeconomics time varying parameters structural vector autoregressive |
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