农业保险可以减轻自然灾害对农业经济的负面影响吗？

丁宇刚; 孙祁祥

农业保险可以减轻自然灾害对农业经济的负面影响吗？

引用本文：丁宇刚,孙祁祥.农业保险可以减轻自然灾害对农业经济的负面影响吗？[J].财经理论与实践,2021,(2):43-49

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作者	单位
丁宇刚,孙祁祥	（北京大学经济学院，北京 100871）

中文摘要:建立融合自然灾害、农业保险以及道德风险的动态模型。模型显示：自然灾害会降低农业产出，而农业保险可以降低自然灾害对农业生产的负面影响，但前提是道德风险的影响较小。实证表明，每增加1元农业保险保费对应的保障水平，可以降低由自然灾害导致的第一产业产出约8.19元的损失。同时，未发现农业保险市场在省级加总层面存在显著的道德风险。

中文关键词:自然灾害农业保险道德风险农业经济

Does Agricultural Insurance Mitigate the Negative Impact of Natural Disaster on the Agricultural Economy?

Abstract:This paper develops a dynamic model that integrates agricultural natural hazard, agricultural insurance, and moral hazard. The model shows that natural disaster reduces agricultural output, and that agricultural insurance is effective in reducing the negative impact of natural disaster on agricultural production only when the impact of moral hazard is small. The empirical results show that increase of agricultural insurance coverage from 1 RMB premium income can reduce the loss of primary industry output caused by natural disaster by about 8.19 RMB. Meanwhile, this paper does not find any significant moral hazard in the agricultural insurance market at aggregated provincial level, which is consistent with the prediction of the model.

keywords:natural disaster agricultural insurance moral hazard agricultural economy

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