“一带一路”区域价值网结构演进与国家角色地位变迁——基于43国的社会网络动态分析

张卫华1; 温   雪2; $21

“一带一路”区域价值网结构演进与国家角色地位变迁——基于43国的社会网络动态分析

引用本文：张卫华1，温雪2，梁运文1.“一带一路”区域价值网结构演进与国家角色地位变迁——基于43国的社会网络动态分析[J].财经理论与实践,2021,(1):133-140

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作者	单位
张卫华1，温雪2，梁运文1	（1.广西大学商学院，广西南宁 530004； 2.广西财经学院经济与贸易学院，广西南宁 530004）

中文摘要:以“一带一路”沿线43个国家作为研究对象，基于2012—2018年的双边贸易数据矩阵，运用修正后的引力模型和社会网络法，考量“一带一路”沿线国家双边价值引力常数偏度、区域价值网演化、国家角色定位变迁。结果显示：中国、印度、俄罗斯、印度尼西亚在“一带一路”沿线国家中具有较大贸易影响力，与中国区域价值引力较大的国家主要是位于“一带”和“一路”前端的东盟和俄罗斯；“一带一路”区域存在中国、俄罗斯、波兰和匈牙利四个紧密关联的贸易中心，其他国家往往与地理上最接近的中心进行贸易，形成四大空间区域；中国“核心”和“桥梁”功能显著，与其他国家的贸易引力和网络粘度较高，已在价值网中居于强主导地位。

中文关键词:“一带一路”倡议区域价值网角色变迁治理体系产业升级

Regional Value Network Structure Evolution and the Role Exchanges of “the Belt and Road” Countries——Social Network Dynamic Analysis Based on 43 Countries

Abstract:Based on the bilateral trade data matrix from 2012 to 2018, this research selects 43 "Belt and Road" (BRI) countries, to quantify the bias of gravitational constant bias, evolution of regional value network and the role exchanges of countries, which using the modified gravity model and social network analysis method. As a result, China, India, Russia and Indonesia have greater trade influence in the BRI network. The countries with greater regional value attraction with China are ASEAN and Russia, which are located at the BRI front end. The concentration of BRI regional value network is forming a four- geographical space by China, Russia, Poland, Hungary, while other countries tend to trade with geographically closest centers. China′s "core" and "bridge" functions are significant, and its trade attraction and network viscosity with other countries are relatively high, indicating that China has been in a strong dominant position in the value network.

keywords:"Belt and Road" initiative (BRI) regional value network role exchanges governance system industrial upgrading

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