顺周期,还是逆周期?——中国分类资本流动的周期特征及其变动研究
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引用本文:何娟文,李 濛.顺周期,还是逆周期?——中国分类资本流动的周期特征及其变动研究[J].财经理论与实践,2021,(1):18-25
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作者单位
何娟文,李 濛 (湖南大学 金融与统计学院湖南 长沙 410079) 
中文摘要:利用我国宏观经济及国际资本流动的相关数据,基于非参数bootstrap技术,对中国总体及分类资本流动的周期特征及其突变点前后的变动进行实证研究,结果发现:各类国际资本流动的周期特征具有异质性,总体、直接及其他投资流动净额及流入额具有顺周期特征,各类资本流动的流出额及证券投资则不具有显著的周期特征;资本流动突变点的发生通常会导致显著的顺周期特征加强及周期特征逆转。因此,有必要进行有针对性的逆周期调节并加强宏观审慎监管。
中文关键词:分类资本流动  顺周期特征  逆周期调节  非参数bootstrap分析
 
Procyclical or Countercyclical?——The Cyclical Properties of Disaggregated Capital Flows and its Changes in China
Abstract:Based on nonparametric bootstrap techniques, using macroeconomic and disaggregated capital flows data in China to conduct empirical studies of the cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows and the variations of them over breakpoints,the results show that the cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows are heterogeneous: the net flows and inflows of total capital flows, direct investment flows and other investment flows are procyclical, but the outflows of disaggregated capital flows and the security investment capital flows are non-procyclical; the procyclical properties of capital inflows always increase, and the cyclical properties of capital outflows always reverse over breakpoints. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt countercyclical policy and strengthen macroprudential management on disaggregated capital flows in China.
keywords:disaggregated capital flows  procyclical  counter-cyclic adjustments  nonparametric bootstrap techniques
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