| 不同碳排放达峰情景对产业结构的影响——基于动态CGE模型的分析 |
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| 引用本文：朱佩誉1,2，凌 文1.不同碳排放达峰情景对产业结构的影响——基于动态CGE模型的分析[J].财经理论与实践,2020,(5):110-118 |
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| 中文摘要:依据2017年投入产出表数据，运用可计算一般均衡理论，构建包括13个中间产业部门和5个能源产业部门的动态CGE模型，考量不同碳排放达峰情景对于产业结构的影响。结果显示：碳减排政策能促进产业结构优化，包括农业、轻工业和服务业等在内的低碳产业部门在总产出中占比增加，高耗能产业部门如非金属矿物加工业、金属加工业等在总产出中占比下降；对能源产出结构影响显著，高碳能源如煤炭、石油在能源产出比例下降，低碳能源如天然气在能源产出比例增加，其中可再生能源比例上升幅度最大。鉴此，应完善碳交易市场运行配套政策和环境，加大技术创新力度，促进产业结构和能源结构优化升级。 |
| 中文关键词:碳排放 产业结构 动态CGE |
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| Study on the Impact of Different Peak Carbon Emission Scenarios on Industrial Structure: An Analysis Based on Dynamic CGE Model |
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| Abstract:Energy saving and emission reduction has become the consensus of the whole society. Carbon trading and other carbon emission reduction policies have been piloted in many provinces and cities across the country. Based on 2017 input-output table, and using GAMS software, this paper constructed a dynamic CGE model on 13 middle sector and five factors of energy sector. The result shows: the carbon reduction policies promote industrial structure optimization; the output percentage of low carbon industrial sectors, such as agriculture, light industry, service industry, rises in the aggregate output, while that of energy intensive industries, such as non-metal mineral, and metal mineral processing industries declines; these polices have a significant effect on the energy output structure; the proportion of high carbon energy output, such as coal, and petroleum, declined, while the proportion of low carbon energy output increased, such as natural gas; especially, the proportion of the output of renewable energy showed the greatest increase. In view of this result, the government should accelerate the improvement of relevant supporting policies and environment for the operation of the carbon trading market, and strengthen technological innovation to promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure and energy structure. |
| keywords:carbon emission scenario industrial structure dynamic CGE |
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