人口年龄结构、房价对城镇居民消费的影响研究

鞠  方; 许依玲; 蔡  玲

人口年龄结构、房价对城镇居民消费的影响研究

引用本文：鞠方，许依玲，蔡玲.人口年龄结构、房价对城镇居民消费的影响研究[J].财经理论与实践,2020,(5):104-109

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作者	单位
鞠方，许依玲，蔡玲	（湘潭大学商学院，湖南湘潭 411105）

中文摘要:依据我国2000-2018年的省际面板数据，运用中介效应模型和系统GMM模型，考量了人口年龄结构、房价和城镇居民消费三者之间的关系。结果表明：三者之间存在着显著的部分中介效应，即房价在人口年龄结构和城镇居民消费之间发挥着中介作用；少儿抚养比、老年抚养比和房价对城镇居民消费具有促进效应，但与房价的交互作用削弱了这种正向影响。鉴此，应积极推进宽松人口生育政策，开拓老年消费市场，完善住房信贷体系，健全社会保障体系。

中文关键词:人口年龄结构房价城镇居民消费中介效应 GMM

Study of the Influence of Population Age Structure and Housing Price on Urban Residents' Consumption

Abstract:Using the inter-provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2018, this paper establishes an intermediary effect model of population age structure, housing prices and consumption of urban residents to detect the intermediary effect, and uses the empirical analysis of systematic GMM to analyze the relationship among them. The research results show that there is a significant part of intermediary effect between the three, that is, housing prices play an intermediary role between the age structure of the population and consumption of urban residents; the child dependency ratio, the elderly dependency ratio and the housing prices have a promoting effect on the consumption of urban residents. But their interaction with housing prices has weakened this positive effect. In view of the research results, this paper suggests that we should actively promote the loose birth control policy, open up the consumer market for the elderly, improve the housing credit system, and improve the social security system.

keywords:population age structure housing price urban residents' consumption intermediary effect GMM

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