上市公司业绩预告偏差对股价崩盘风险的影响—基于内部控制的视角
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引用本文:宫义飞1 ,夏艳春2 ,罗开心1 ,王 艳3.上市公司业绩预告偏差对股价崩盘风险的影响—基于内部控制的视角[J].财经理论与实践,2020,(5):53-60
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宫义飞1 ,夏艳春2 ,罗开心1 ,王 艳3 (1.西南大学 经济管理学院重庆 400715 2.重庆大学 经济与工商管理学院重庆 400044 3.东方红卫星移动通信有限公司重庆 401123) 
中文摘要:利用我国A股2012-2018年上市公司数据,探讨上市公司业绩预告偏差与偏离方向如何影响股价崩盘风险,以及内部控制质量对两者的调节作用。研究发现:公司业绩预告偏差与股价崩盘风险显著正相关;与悲观偏差相比,业绩预告乐观偏差才会加剧股价崩盘风险,高质量的内部控制能够缓解业绩预告乐观偏差加剧的股价崩盘风险。进一步研究发现,当上市公司业绩预告需要强制披露、披露越及时及披露坏消息时,内部控制质量的调节作用更加显著。由此证明,高质量内部控制在缓解因业绩预告乐观偏差加剧的股价崩盘风险中发挥重要作用。
中文关键词:业绩预告偏差  内部控制有效性  股价崩盘风险
 
The Impact of Earnings Forecast Bias on the Stock Price Crash Risk Based on the Perspective of Internal Control
Abstract:Using the data of A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2017 in China, this paper examines how the bias of earnings forecast of listed companies and the direction of bias affect the stock price crash risk, and the moderating effect of the effectiveness of internal control between the two. The results show that the bias of earnings forecast has a significant positive correlation with the stock price crash risk, and compared with pessimistic bias, optimistic bias will only exacerbate the stock price crash risk. Further research found that high-quality internal control can alleviate the stock price crash risk caused by optimistic bias of earnings forecast, and that if the optimistic bias of performance forecast of listed companies requires mandatory disclosure, the more timely the disclosure of information and the bad news, the greater is the role internal control quality plays in regulating the risk. The research shows that the way of performance forecast will have different effects on the stock price crash risk. Internal control plays an important role in mitigating stock price crash risk caused by the bias of earnings forecast.
keywords:bias of earnings forecast  internal control  stock price crash risk
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