基于供需平衡的社会型长期护理保险缴费水平研究——以 长 沙 市 为 例

张  宁; 王  佳; 李旷奇

基于供需平衡的社会型长期护理保险缴费水平研究——以长沙市为例

引用本文：张宁，王佳，李旷奇.基于供需平衡的社会型长期护理保险缴费水平研究——以长沙市为例[J].财经理论与实践,2020,(5):28-35

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作者	单位
张宁，王佳，李旷奇	（湖南大学金融与统计学院湖南长沙 410079）

中文摘要:在界定老年人失能状态的基础上，将多状态马尔可夫模型与ILO筹资模型相结合，构建了一个供需平衡下的社会型长期护理保险缴费模型。同时，对50岁及以上各年龄段人群的健康状态转移概率矩阵进行估计，结合人口数据估算和预测未来处于不同失能状态的人口数量；并对长沙市未来缴费人口和社会平均工资水平进行预测，估算了未来长沙市社会型长期护理保险缴费水平。

中文关键词:社会型长期护理保险缴费水平多状态马尔可夫模型

Research on the Payment Level of Social Long-term Care Insurance Based on the Balance of Supply and Demand: Taking Changsha City as An Example

Abstract:Based on the definition of disability status of the elderly, the multi-state Markov model and the ILO financing model are combined to construct a social long-term nursing insurance payment model under the balance of supply and demand. At the same time, the health state transition probability matrix of people aged 50 and above is estimated, and the population data are used to estimate and predict the future population in different disability states. The future contribution population and social average wage level of Changsha are forecasted and the level of payment of the social long-term nursing insurance of Changsha is estimated.

keywords:social long-term care insurance the level of payment multi-state Markov model

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