“加剧”还是“缓解”:政府转移支付与农户家庭未来减贫——基于贫困脆弱性视角的实证分析
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引用本文:肖 攀1,苏 静2,刘春晖2.“加剧”还是“缓解”:政府转移支付与农户家庭未来减贫——基于贫困脆弱性视角的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2020,(4):86-93
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肖 攀1,苏 静2,刘春晖2 (1.湖南省洞庭湖生态经济区建设与发展协同创新中心湖南 常德 4150002.湖南文理学院 经济与管理学院湖南 常德 415000) 
中文摘要:基于2018年CFPS数据和Logit模型分析政府转移支付对农户家庭贫困脆弱性的影响及异质性。研究表明:政府转移支付总体上对农户家庭贫困脆弱性并未产生积极的改善效果,反而进一步促进了农户家庭贫困脆弱性增加。从区域异质性看,政府转移支付对贫困脆弱性的正向促进作用主要体现在中、西部地区,并且以中部地区尤为明显。从家庭特征看,政府转移支付主要促使收入贫困农户、非融资约束农户、非土地流转农户、非组织参与农户家庭贫困脆弱性增加,并且对绝对贫困农户的促进效应要大于相对贫困农户。对非收入贫困户、土地流转户和组织参与户家庭贫困脆弱性的影响不显著。从户主特征看,政府转移支付主要对户主健康家庭、自雇户主家庭的贫困脆弱性产生正向促进效应,对稳定受雇户主家庭贫困脆弱性的影响不显著。
中文关键词:政府转移支付  贫困脆弱性  农户贫困  异质性
 
Exacerbate or Ease? Government Transfers and Future Poverty of Farmers——Empirical Analysis Based on Vulnerability of Poverty
Abstract:Base on the 2018 China Family Panel Studies data and Logit model, this paper identifies the effect and heterogeneity of government transfers on farmers' poverty vulnerability. The results show that government transfers has not significantly improved the vulnerability to poverty of famers. The increasing effect of government transfer payment on poverty vulnerability is mainly reflected in the central and western regions, especially in the central region. From the perspective of the heterogeneity of family characteristics, the promotion effect is mainly reflected in the income poor farmers, non-financing constrained farmers, non-land transfer farmers, and non-organization participating farmers. And the promotion effect on absolute poor farmers is greater than that on relatively poor farmers. The impact on the poverty vulnerability is not significant for non-income poor households, land transfer households and organizations participating households. The promotion effect on the vulnerability of poverty is mainly reflected in the healthy and self-employed heads of households. The effect on the stability of employed households is not significant.
keywords:government transfers  vulnerability of poverty  poverty of farmers  heterogeneity
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