生育选择、人力资本和中等收入陷阱

徐  达  实

生育选择、人力资本和中等收入陷阱

引用本文：徐达实.生育选择、人力资本和中等收入陷阱[J].财经理论与实践,2019,(6):135-140

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作者	单位
徐达实	（上海财经大学经济学院，上海 200433）

中文摘要:通过建立一个内生的生育率选择模型，研究收入水平与教育投入的相互影响。结果表明：随着收入水平的提高，由于生育成本的增长速度高于教育价格的增速，家庭会逐步降低生育率，加大对孩子的教育投入。在模型中，随着收入水平的上升，人均收入的增长率会逐步下降，但教育水平的提升可以使这种增长放缓的现象得到缓解。结合36个国家近50年的面板数据，统计了“增长放缓”现象在不同收入区间的分布情况，结果发现：“增长放缓”现象的确集中出现在中等收入国家，形成所谓的“中等收入陷阱”；而根据probit回归的结果，中高等教育的普及能够有效降低增长放缓出现的概率，同时，贸易壁垒较高、基础设施陈旧以及制度评分落后的国家更有可能遇到增长动力不足的问题。

中文关键词:生育选择教育投资中等收入陷阱

Fertility Choice, Human Capital and Middle Income Trap

Abstract:This paper establishes an endogenous fertility choice model of utility-maximized households to study the interaction of income and education. The results show that the cost of raising one child will grow faster than the educational cost with the increase of income, which forces households to invest more in the education of their children instead of keeping a high-level fertility rate. The growth rate of income will fall with the development of economy, but the rising education level can maintain the growth of income. According to the nearly 50-year panel data of 36 countries, the "growth slowdown" is most likely to be found among the middle-income countries，generating the phenomenon of middle-income trap. Based on the results of probit regression, the population of secondary and higher education can cut down the probability of "growth slowdown", and the countries with high trade barrier, poor infrastructure and institutions are more likely to encounter the growth problem.

keywords:fertility choice educational investment middle-income trap

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