| 政治冲突与国际贸易：韩国萨德事件对中韩贸易的影响分析 |
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| 引用本文：谢建国，徐苹苹.政治冲突与国际贸易：韩国萨德事件对中韩贸易的影响分析[J].财经理论与实践,2019,(6):106-113 |
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| 中文摘要:运用双重差分模型，依据中韩两国产品贸易数据，考量萨德事件对中韩贸易的影响。结果表明：萨德事件引发的中国消费者抵制运动使得韩国向中国的出口损失幅度达到近30%，受影响的产品主要集中在替代性较高的日常生活消费品领域，韩国对华电子产品贸易并未受到萨德事件冲突的影响，侧面说明了中国官方表现出相对理性与克制的态度，韩国向中国出口的后果更多地来自民间自发性消费抵制；冲突带来的进口替代效应使得第三方出口国如日本、美国、德国等国家从萨德事件中受益，这些国家扩大了对华出口，但是这种进口替代效应具有短期性，随着时间的推延逐渐消失。 |
| 中文关键词:政治冲突 消费者抵制 萨德事件 贸易转移 |
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| The Impact of International Political Conflicts on International Trade：An Empirical Research Based on the THAAD Incident |
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| Abstract:The competition of economic resources and geopolitical game between great powers have frequently caused frictions and conflicts. How political conflicts affect trade has become a hot issue in the field of international politics and international economics. Based on the incident of South Korea's deployment of the THAAD anti-missile system in 2017, this paper uses the 2-digit trade data between China and Korea to study the impact of this political conflict on Sino-Korea trade. The results show that the Chinese consumer boycott movement initiated by the THAAD incident has caused a nearly 30% loss in South Korea's exports to China, and the affected products are mainly consumer goods of daily life with higher substitutability. The results also revealed that South Korea's trade in electronic products with China didn't affected by the THAAD incident, which indicated that the official attitude of China been relative rationality and restraint in the THAAD incident, and the negative impact on Korea's exports to China has mainly come from the spontaneous consumer boycott rather than the government. The study also shows that the import substitution effect brought by the conflict made third-party export countries such as Japan, the United States, and Germany benefit from the THAAD incident, and those countries expanded their exports to China. However, this import substitution effect has a short-term nature and gradually disappears with the passage of time. This paper not only reveals the possible impact of political conflicts on international trade, but also provides practical guidelines for China to deal with international political conflicts in the future. |
| keywords:political conflicts consumer boycott the THAAD Incident trade transfer |
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