货币政策对房地产金融风险的影响研究——基于SVAR模型与门槛模型的实证分析

周建军; 孙倩倩

货币政策对房地产金融风险的影响研究——基于SVAR模型与门槛模型的实证分析

引用本文：周建军，孙倩倩.货币政策对房地产金融风险的影响研究——基于SVAR模型与门槛模型的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2019,(4):32-37

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作者	单位
周建军，孙倩倩	（湘潭大学商学院，湖南湘潭〓411105）

中文摘要:基于主成分分析方法，利用SVAR模型和门槛模型，考量货币政策对房地产金融风险的影响。实证结果表明：货币政策调整会对房地产金融风险产生冲击；M2增长率与房地产金融风险间存在双向因果关系，同业拆借利率和准备金率与房地产金融风险间存在单向因果关系；货币政策冲击对房地产金融风险的影响在不同房价水平上具有非对称性。以货币政策调控时应注意斟酌损益，避免此消彼长，加剧房地产金融风险。

中文关键词:货币政策 M2增长率同业拆借利率存款准备金房地产金融风险

Research on the Impact of Monetary Policy on Real Estate Financial Risk——Empirical Analysis Based on SVAR Model and Threshold Model

Abstract:This paper explore the relationship between monetary policy and real estate financial risk, which is measured by means of the principal component analysis method, with SVAR model and threshold model. The empirical results show that the change of monetary policy will impact the real estate financial risk. Among them, there is a bi-directional causal relationship between M2 growth rate and real estate financial risk, and there is a one-way causal relationship between interbank lending rate and reserve rate and real estate financial risk. The impact of monetary policy shock on real estate financial risk is asymmetric at different housing price levels. When Adjusting monetary policy, we should pay attention to the profit and loss, avoid the ups and downs, and aggravate the financial risk of real estate.

keywords:Monetary policy M2 growth rate Interbank lending rate Deposit reserve Real estate financial risk

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