中国金融部门杠杆周期分析——基于1998-2018年的数据证明
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引用本文:朱 凯.中国金融部门杠杆周期分析——基于1998-2018年的数据证明[J].财经理论与实践,2019,(4):9-15
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作者单位
朱 凯 (中国人民大学 应用经济学院/国际货币研究所北京 100872) 
中文摘要:结合中国经济金融体系发展实践,以银行部门(其他存款性公司)总资产/实收资本作为代理指标分析中国金融部门杠杆率的周期性特征,并对周期形成原因进行探究,对我国金融部门杠杆周期与金融周期的顺周期性进行检验。结果显示:在观测期内,中国金融部门杠杆经历了多个短周期,短周期长度在9~16个季度(约2~4年)不等,并经历了至少1次中周期,中周期时间约为35个季度(约9年);我国金融部门杠杆周期与国家金融监管政策密切相关;我国金融部门的杠杆周期与金融周期并不必然表现为顺周期性。因此,我国应当更加注重金融监管政策和信贷政策的配合协同,科学反映金融部门杠杆情况,维护金融稳定,防止发生系统性金融风险。
中文关键词:金融部门杠杆  杠杆周期  金融周期
 
On the Leverage Cycle of China's Financial Sector——Study Based on Data from 1998 to 2018
Abstract:The high leverage of the financial sector is an important mechanism for amplifying shocks. In combination with the development practice of China's economic and financial system, using the banking sector total assets/paid in capital as proxy indicators, the paper analyzes the cyclical characteristics of the leverage ratio of China's financial sector, and explores the reasons for the formation of the cycle, and tests the procyclical cycle of the financial sector and the procyclicality of the financial cycle. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of the leverage period of China's financial sector and the reasons for its formation, it puts forward policy recommendations that scientifically reflect the leverage of the financial sector, maintain financial stability, and prevent systemic financial risks.
keywords:Financial sector leverage  Leverage cycle  Financial cycle
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