中国食物自给率及其影响因素分析:基于营养源视角

刘慕华

中国食物自给率及其影响因素分析:基于营养源视角

引用本文：刘慕华.中国食物自给率及其影响因素分析:基于营养源视角[J].财经理论与实践,2019,(3):142-148

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作者	单位
刘慕华	(湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411102)

中文摘要:基于营养源视角，运用灰色关联方法考量中国食物自给率及其影响因素。结果发现：1961—2013年中国综合食物自给率整体呈下降趋势，2000-2005年呈现明显的倒“U”形变化。从其结构而言，产品间差异较大；就其影响因素而言，生产、消费、贸易环节各主要影响因素的影响效应各有差异。测算显示，根据目前的生产布局，到2020年除谷物、糖料、蔬菜作物的自给率上升外，大豆、油料、肉类自给率将持续下降。

中文关键词:营养源食物自给率库存变化影响因素

China's Food Self Sufficiency and Its Influence Factors: A Perspective of Nutrition Source

Abstract:Based on a perspective of nutrition source, China's food self-sufficiency rate influence factors are estimated by adopting the Grey-correlation analysis method. It shows that, in 1961-2013, China's overall food self-sufficiency rate has declined. In 2000-2005, it showed a reversed U-sharp trend. In terms of food structure, the gap between different products is significant. Also, factors such as food production, consumption, and trade have contrasting impacts on China's food self-sufficiency. It is predicted that the self-sufficiency rates of soybeans, oil crops, and meat will be continuously deteriorated in 2020 under the current distribution of China's food production, except for those of grains, sugar crops, and vegetables, which show a growing trend.

keywords:nutrition source food self-sufficiency rate stock change influence factors

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