中国与“一带一路”沿线国家出口贸易研究——基于汇率变动、外贸依存度的视角
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引用本文:吕诚伦,王学凯.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家出口贸易研究——基于汇率变动、外贸依存度的视角[J].财经理论与实践,2019,(3):113-118
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作者单位
吕诚伦,王学凯 (中共中央党校(国家行政学院) 经济学教研部北京100091) 
中文摘要:引入汇率变动引力模型,采用“一带一路”沿线64个国家2002-2015年面板数据,研究汇率变动和外贸依存度对出口贸易的影响,结果显示:汇率变动不是影响中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口贸易的最重要因素,人民币升值促进了出口贸易,原因在于中国“一带一路”沿线国家的汇率变动不是很大;外贸依存度对出口贸易影响显著且存在双重门槛效应,外贸依存度越小,出口潜力越大;两国之间距离对出口贸易有显著负向影响;缔结自由贸易协定对出口贸易的影响尚未显现。因此,我国应保持人民币汇率基本稳定,以外贸依存度大小分类实施不同贸易政策,继续推进“一带一路”国家基础设施建设,并细化自由贸易协定。
中文关键词:汇率变动  外贸依存度  出口贸易
 
Empirical Analysis of Export Between China and Belt & Road Countries Based on Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Dependence
Abstract:With 64 countries' panel data from 2002 to 2015 contained by Belt and Road, the paper is about to analyze effects of exchange rate volatility and trade dependence on export, which is based on Gravity Model with exchange rate volatility. The paper finally makes some interesting conclusions. Firstly, exchange rate volatility is not the most important factor that affects trade between China and Belt and Road countries, and appreciation of RMB will boost trade flows from China to Belt and Road countries because of tiny exchange rate fluctuation. Secondly, trade dependence has significant Double Threshold effect on China's export, and the smaller the trade dependence is, the bigger the export is. Thirdly, distance between China and each country of Belt & Road has negative influence on China's export. Finally, Free Trade Agreement's impact on China's export to Belt and Road countries has not appeared. At the end of this paper, we make some suggestions, such as maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate, implementing different trade policies by classification of trade dependence, promoting infrastructure construction among Belt and Road and refining free trade agreement.
keywords:exchange rate volatility  trade dependence  export
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