贸易保护对汇率的影响——基于资本流动性及汇率收敛视角
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引用本文:李俊峰,刘晓辉.贸易保护对汇率的影响——基于资本流动性及汇率收敛视角[J].财经理论与实践,2018,(5):15-22
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作者单位
李俊峰,刘晓辉 (西南财经大学 中国金融研究中心,四川 成都 611130) 
中文摘要:对资本开放程度及汇率收敛度进行分类的框架下,考察贸易保护对汇率的影响。研究发现:在不同分类的国家,同样提升关税,对名义汇率的影响不尽相同;在汇率收敛的国家,提升关税会伴随资本控制程度降低而会导致名义汇率升值;在汇率不收敛情况下,提升关税会伴随资本控制程度降低而导致名义汇率贬值;从升值角度向绝对收敛状态转移时,低资本控制度及汇率收敛使汇率收敛度越接近于绝对收敛,在关税上升情况下会加剧名义汇率升值。使用动态系统GMM模型对66个国家2000-2014年样本数据进行实证分析,有力支撑了理论分析的结果。同时,对非关税措施进行实证分析,得出一般情况下贸易保护政策的确会造成汇率的升值,该结果在一般情况下是稳健的。
中文关键词:关税  资本控制  汇率收敛
 
The Impact of Trade Protection on Exchange Rates Based on the Perspective of Capital Liquidity and Exchange Rate Convergence
Abstract:This paper examines the impact of trade protection on exchange rates under the framework of classifying capital openness and exchange rate convergence. It finds that in different countries, as tariff barriers rise, the impact on the nominal exchange rate is different. In the countries where the exchange rate is convergent, the rise of tariffs will lead to the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate in the case of capital control reduction; if the exchange rate is not convergent, the rise of tariffs in the case of capital control reduction will lead to the depreciation. From the appreciation point of view to the absolute convergence of state transition, in low capital control and exchange rate convergence situation, the more exchange rate converges closer to absolute convergence, the more tariff rising will exacerbate the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate. Then, the dynamic model GMM model is used to analyze the sample data from 66 countries in 2000 to 2014, which support the theoretical analysis. In the extended analysis, the paper proposes the empirical analysis of non-tariff measures. It is concluded that the trade protection policy does cause the appreciation of the exchange rate in general. The result is stable in the general situation.
keywords:tariff  capital control  exchange rate convergence
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