中国通货膨胀预期记忆性研究——基于2003-2017年央行数据的实证分析

于 光 耀

中国通货膨胀预期记忆性研究——基于2003-2017年央行数据的实证分析

引用本文：于光耀.中国通货膨胀预期记忆性研究——基于2003-2017年央行数据的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2018,(4):2-7

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作者	单位
于光耀	（吉林警察学院经济管理系，吉林长春 130000）

中文摘要:基于央行发布的居民对下季度物价预期数据，构建净差额法、正态分布、均匀分布以及逻辑分布下的通货膨胀预期，实证检验不同分布下通胀预期的记忆性，并在此基础上研究北京、河北、江西、云南等四个省市之间记忆性差异及其微观原因。结果表明:当我国居民通胀预期服从均匀分布时，通胀预期有可能存在记忆性，并且具有“长记忆”特征。其中北京通胀预期记忆性最短，其次是河北和云南，江西通胀预期记忆性最长。这种通胀预期记忆性的差异来源于各省市居民对未来收入信心、金融参与程度以及人均收入等微观因素的差别。

中文关键词:通货膨胀预期记忆性预期管理

Research on Inflation Expectation Memory in China——Based on an Empirical Analysis of Central Bank Data in 2003-2017

Abstract:This paper builds the inflation expectation under the net difference method, normal distribution, uniform distribution and logical distribution according to the price expectation to the next quarter of the residents, and empirically examines the memory of the inflation expectation under different distribution, and studies the memory differences of Beijing, Hebei, Jiangxi and Yunnan and the microcosmic basis. The results show that when the inflation expectations of China follows a uniform distribution, inflation expectation is likely to be memory oriented and has "long memory" characteristics. At the same time, through the test of the above of inflation expectation memory, we find that Beijing's inflation expected memory is the shortest, followed by Hebei and Yunnan, and Jiangxi inflation memory is the longest. The difference in memory expectation is due to the differences between residents in different of future income confidence, financial participation and per capita income.

keywords:inflation expectation memory management of expectation

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