房地产价格对我国城镇居民消费的长短期影响研究
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引用本文:李春风1,刘建江2,齐祥芹1.房地产价格对我国城镇居民消费的长短期影响研究[J].财经理论与实践,2018,(1):104-110
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李春风1,刘建江2,齐祥芹1 (1.南京信息工程大学 商学院 江苏 南京 2100442.长沙理工大学 经济管理学院湖南 长沙 410014) 
中文摘要:考虑居民收入等级不同,对住房属性偏重不同,将居民分为不受到流动性约束型、不完全受到流动性约束型、完全受到流动性约束型三类。基于各自目标函数及约束条件,确定动态面板模型检验房价与消费的协整关系,并构建动态面板误差修正模型,结果显示:全国层面,收入是影响消费的核心因素,房价上涨、预期房价上涨影响消费为挤出效应,且存在长期均衡关系;居民层面:不受到流动性约束的居民,收入不是消费的重要因素,而其余两类居民的消费受收入、习惯强度影响较大,且流动性约束越强,影响更为明显;不受到流动性约束的居民,在短期及长期内,房价上涨、预期房价上涨影响消费为财富效应;而其余两类居民,影响为挤出效应,强度大于前者的财富效应,且流动性约束越强,抑制作用更为显著。
中文关键词:房地产价格  流动性约束  面板协整  动态面板误差修正模型
 
The Research on Short- and Long-term Influences of the Real Estate Prices on Consumption
Abstract:In terms of the income differences, and preference differences in housing dual attributes, residents are divided into three groups: residents with liquidity not being constrained, residents with liquidity not being fully constrained, and residents with liquidity being completely constrained. Based on their respective objective function and constraint conditions, a dynamic panel model is constructed to determine the cointegration relationship between house prices and consumption, and build dynamic panel error correction model. The results show that:①on the national level, income is the core factor, and the effect of housing price rise and expected housing price rise on consumption is a squeezing effect; ②on the resident level, for residents with no liquidity constraint, income is not an important factor of consumption, and the other two groups' consumption are greatly influenced by income and habits-- the stronger the liquidity constraints, the more obvious the effect; for residents with no liquidity constraints, in the short and long term, prices rising and expected price rising affect wealth, thus in turn affects consumption; the other two types of residents experience the effect of crowding out; the strength is greater than the former wealth effect, and the stronger the liquidity constraint, the more significant the inhibition effect.
keywords:real estate prices  liquidity constraint  panel co-integration  Dynamic Panel Error Correction Mode
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