“一带一路”贸易空间关联与我国关税政策优化——基于网络、空间和制度的实证分析

唐红李1; 刘嘉意2

“一带一路”贸易空间关联与我国关税政策优化——基于网络、空间和制度的实证分析

引用本文：唐红李1，刘嘉意2.“一带一路”贸易空间关联与我国关税政策优化——基于网络、空间和制度的实证分析[J].财经理论与实践,2018,(1):89-96

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作者	单位
唐红李1，刘嘉意2	（1.湖南大学经济与贸易学院湖南长沙 410006；2.湖南大学外国语与国际教育学院湖南长沙 410082）

中文摘要:基于2010-2015年“一带一路”沿线国家对华贸易数据，运用社会网络分析方法（SNA）分析沿线国家对华贸易空间关联网络结构，结果发现：沿线国家对华贸易空间关联规模较大，呈现出复杂的、具有“中心-边缘”形态的网络结构，土耳其、俄罗斯、印度、埃及等国家处于网络的中心地位。在贸易空间关联网络基础上，构建空间滞后模型（SLM）和空间杜宾模型（SDM），考量“一带一路”沿线国家对华贸易的关税政策因素，结果表明：沿线各国的关税政策不仅对本国对华贸易存在显著的影响，而且对相邻国家的对华贸易也具有一定的“外溢效应”。因此，我国在制定促进“一带一路”贸易畅通的关税政策时，应创新协同治理思路，努力消除关税壁垒，深化双边和多边税收合作，建立多层次、差异化的税收协调机制，发挥关税制度正向空间外溢效应。

中文关键词:“一带一路” 贸易空间关联社会网络分析方法空间杜宾模型关税政策优化

Spatial Association of Trade along the Belt and Road and China's Tariff Policy Optimization——An Empirical Analysis Based on Network, Space and Policy

Abstract:Based on the data of trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road from 2010 to 2015, this paper uses the social network analysis method (SNA) to analyze the structure of the spatial network of trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road. The study shows that the spatial association are relatively large, showing a complex, "central-marginal" form of network structure. Turkey, Russia, India, Egypt and other countries are in the center of the network. On this basis, the spatial lag model (SLM) and the spatial Durbin model (SDM) are constructed to further study the tariff policy factors that affect the trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road. It found that the tariff policy of the countries along the Belt and Road not only has a significant impact on their own trade with China, but also has a "spillover effect" on neighboring countries' trade with China. Therefore, China should make efforts to eliminate trade barriers, establish a free trade zone with the countries along the Belt and Road, deepen bilateral and multilateral tax cooperation, and establish a multi-level and differentiated tax coordination mechanism in the development of tariff policies, to promote the smooth trade and make tax system play its positive role of space spillover.

keywords:Belt and Road Initiative spatial association of trade Social Network Analysis Spatial Durbin Model tariff policy optimization

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