产业结构升级对中国人口流动的影响——基于255个城市的面板数据分析

梁向东1; 魏逸玭2

产业结构升级对中国人口流动的影响——基于255个城市的面板数据分析

引用本文：梁向东1，魏逸玭2.产业结构升级对中国人口流动的影响——基于255个城市的面板数据分析[J].财经理论与实践,2017,(5):93-98

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作者	单位
梁向东1，魏逸玭2	（长沙理工大学经济与管理学院，湖南长沙 410014）

中文摘要:基于2000-2014年间中国255个城市有关数据，考量产业结构升级对中国人口空间分布的影响。结果显示，产业结构升级对中国城市人口流动整体呈负向影响，加剧了人口不合理分布。结果表明:服务业对人口流动的带动作用没有发挥出来；劳动者收入低，难以承担整个家庭的流动成本；户籍制度等政策性限制提高了迁移成本。鉴此，应加速发展现代服务业，促进大城市多样化、中小型城市（镇）专业化，优化区域产业分工，提高劳动收入，减少对人口流动的隐性政策性限制等，以促进人口有序有效流动，改善我国人口空间分布。

中文关键词:产业结构升级人口流动人口分布

A Research on the Upgrading of Industrial Structure and Chinas Population Mobility

Abstract:Based on the data of 255 cities in China from 2000 to 2014，the paper analyzes the influence of industrial structure upgrading on the spatial distribution of population in China.The results show that the impact of industrial upgrading on urban population inflow is negative as a whole，which exacerbates the irrational distribution of population.The underlying reasons are: the role of the service sector in the flow of population has not been played；the labor income of the transfer labor force is low；it is difficult to bear the flow cost of the whole family；and household registration system and other policy restrictions raise the migration costs.This paper argues that accelerating the development of modern service industry，promoting the diversification of big cities，specializing small and medium sized cities (towns)，optimizing regional industrial division of labor，improving labor income，reducing the implicit policy constraints on population movements and so on，could promote the orderly and effective flow of population，and improve the distribution of population in China.

keywords:upgrading of industrial structure migration population distribution

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