国际粮食价格与我国粮食生产的波动相关性研究

肖国安1; 王 颖1; 2; 龚 波2

国际粮食价格与我国粮食生产的波动相关性研究

引用本文：肖国安1，王颖1，2，龚波2.国际粮食价格与我国粮食生产的波动相关性研究[J].财经理论与实践,2017,(4):115-120

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作者	单位
肖国安1，王颖1，2，龚波2	（1.湘潭大学商学院，湖南湘潭 411105；2湖南科技大学计算机学院，湖南湘潭 411201）

中文摘要:运用经验模态分解和典型相关分析法，研究我国粮食生产与国际粮价波动之间的相关性。结果表明：我国稻谷产量的IMF2分量、小麦产量的IMF3分量，分别与对应的国际价格波动分量存在负相关性；玉米产量与其国际价格的IMF2波动分量在2007年前呈负相关性，之后呈现正相关性；大豆产量与其国际价格之间的波动相关性不明显。为此，政府应优化农业种植结构，完善新型价格支持体系以减少国际粮价波动对我国粮食市场的冲击。

中文关键词:经验模态分解国际价格产量波动相关性

Research on the Correlation Between International Grain Price Fluctuation and Grain Production Fluctuation in China

Abstract:The paper studies the correlation between grain production in China and international food price fluctuation using empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and typical correlation analysis.The results show that the IMF2 component of rice yield and the IMF3 component of wheat yield in China are negatively correlated with the corresponding international price fluctuation components，the IMF2 fluctuation component of corn yield and its international price is negatively correlated before 2007,and then there is a positive correlation between them.We also find that the correlation between soybean production and its international price fluctuation is not significant.Therefore，the government shall optimize the agricultural crops structure and improve the new price support system to mitigate the impact of international food price fluctuations on China’s food market.

keywords:empirical mode decomposition（EMD） international price yield fluctuation correlation

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